Housing Numbers Will Move Bitcoin & Alts 10am Housing Comes In STRONG Market Reaction: Stocks sell off initially Yields move higher Dollar firmer Why: Strong data + high inflation + oil > $110 → Fed stays tight longer → No policy relief If Housing Comes In WEAK Market Reaction (2-step): 1) Immediate: Stocks sell off Cyclicals lead downside Why: Confirms growth deterioration 2) Then: Possible bounce Yields start to fall Why: Market prices eventual Fed response Key Override (Oil at $110+) Caps rallies Keeps inflation pressure elevated Delays Fed pivot Net Strong print = rates up, equities down Weak print = down first, then choppy crypto is tied to the Mac we watch every bounce Environment = two-way volatility, not trend So how does this affect cryptocurrencies? Crypto is tied to yields, dollar and into a lesser degree the volatility index so a weak print will cause the yields to fall and dollar to ease. This is you liquidity transmission layer no one talks about. Liquidity is very strong right now with levels not seen in months. But there is a problem of the money flowing to risk assets due to inflation, oil, high yields and high dollar. This is macro 101 my 18 year old knows this. Crypto will rise today and generally out perform stocks as this war continues and oil stays above 70 per barrel. (if numbers weak). I can’t see the housing number is coming up strong given the fact that we’ve lost 1.4 million jobs and consumer confidence and retail sales are in the crapper but anything is possible because these numbers get fudged. Housing is the last shoe to fall and a warning sign for the federal reserve and others.