This is how Long Term Capital and its Nobel Prize winning economists went bust. Black Swan events tend to have power law tails. For Bitcoin its very existence is a black/grey swan and its whole existence has been outside of the efficient market hypothesis paradigm of exponential drift and Gaussian/log normal residuals. “Bitcoin origin ~ Black/Gray Swan Bitcoin evolution ~ Power-law system” Instead we have power law structure with t-location-scale residuals. Once log periodicity with multiple modes is applied and perhaps some linear halving impulse behavior, only then do the residuals become near to Gaussian