Inflation Reacceleration and Bitcoin — How Supply Shocks Shape the Macro Market via @cryptoquant_com (Report-#262) U.S. inflation is showing signs of reacceleration. Headline CPI rose to +3.3% YoY in March 2026, while core CPI remained at +2.6%, highlighting a clear divergence. Core PCE also stands above target at +3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. The key point is that this inflation is driven more by supply shocks than demand. Rising oil prices and renewed supply chain pressures suggest that energy and logistics constraints are pushing prices higher. This explains the current structure of rising headline inflation with relatively stable core inflation. In this environment, Bitcoin cannot be understood as a simple inflation hedge. In practice, BTC is more sensitive to financial conditions such as real rates, the U.S. dollar, and overall liquidity. Higher-for-longer rates tend to pressure BTC, while improving liquidity supports rebounds. Importantly, there is no stable correlation between inflation and Bitcoin. As shown in the chart, both rose in 2025, but in 2026 inflation stayed elevated while BTC declined. This divergence shows that BTC reacts not to inflation itself, but to monetary policy and liquidity conditions. The persistent negative Coinbase Premium Index in 2026 also signals weak U.S. demand, weighing on price. Thus, the relationship should be understood as: inflation → monetary policy → liquidity → demand → BTC. Ultimately, Bitcoin is driven not by inflation itself, but by how inflation shapes financial conditions. Monitoring supply shocks, policy response, and capital flows is key to understanding the market. https://t.co/5E6qnyFqPo—-How-Supply-Shocks-Shape-the-Macro-Market