🚨🚨🚨RETRACE CONTINUES: Ending 4/10/2026, The Modified Dow Theory For US Equities Was +2.72% Above It's BUY Trigger, Signaling A Primary Uptrend is Beginning Again. The Dow Jones US Total Market Is +2.14% “Partially” Confirming The Signal As A WhipSaw. See Below. Last Week It Was –0.80% & -1.08% respectively. We are above the MDT Buy Line Once Again, but according to our rules we won't confirm this as a solid buy signal until we cross the top guardrail on the chart which is 5% above where the sell line was penetrated and price closed when it triggered. My experience with taking the signal as soon as the MDT Buy Line is penetrated can be summed up as being more aggressive rather than taking a conservative stance. If you are OK with selling should we fall below the line again then feel free to take it and enter again on Monday. But if you are more conservative as an investor, then waiting to see if this pans out or not is the wiser choice. In either case it doesn't seem to be too far off from everything being risk on again, even with the war and other bad news. But then again, that is usually when buy triggers come, when no one else is getting in yet. New Format: I will now be analyzing the following markets: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Indexes, Silver, Gold, Oil, US Dollar, Energy Infrastructure, Bitcoin and Ethereum. If you find my analysis helpful please buy me a coffee. The link can be found on my profile page. A lot of work goes into this. Smashing the like, repost and follow helps the algo's find me. I am following back all new people and working on following most of the ones who have been loyal. Please know you have to be verified for me to do this. One more note on this. I have been severely limited by the X algo. Not many people see my posts but I continue to put them up. I'm averaging about 50 views which is a ridiculously low number, especially considering I've been here since 2013. I don't know how to break this problem. I've tried many different avenues and nothing is working. The only thing I can think of is starting a new profile page but I hate to give up my starting year. I have 3 choices: a) new profile b) keep posting til I drop this mortal coil c) post how I get my numbers and how to do the MDT yourself and then just fade to a distant memory. Every given day I think about this. Just know, you are always appreciated no matter what happens. Stay safe out there. The Domestic US MDT was +3.52% higher from last week. Last Week +3.18% higher By comparison, the International MDT which includes European and Asian Indicators is +7.33% above its sell trigger. Confirmation +6.97%. Last Week +3.11% and +2.88%. Quite the rebound and never a sell signal. This is very encouraging. For now, I will keep the commentary to a minimum. I will be giving short, medium and long term momentum analysis in each weekly report for the sectors I've already mentioned. The math is more important. The noise and the news is not. Dow: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +3.51%; 10 Week +0.36%; 20 week -0.55%; 40 week +2.03% Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Neutral with Local High Close. Daily Momentum Neutral, Trend Bullish, Long Term Trend Bearish, Cyclical Strength Bullish. New Pattern Forming on weekly. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): New Pattern Forming but Still Bearish. Monthly Momentum Bearish, Trend Bearish, Long Term Trend Neutral, Cyclical Strength Neutral. New Pattern Forming on monthly and quarterly. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Still bullish overall but at a critical juncture. The secular bull market since 2009 and broadest trends remain intact with positive weekly to yearly signals, yet 2026 is a major cyclical turning point year (starting July 1). The Dow is down 6.02% YTD and well below last year’s close, raising the risk of a correction into 2027. Summary: The Dow remains in a short to medium term corrective phase with mixed signals and new pattern forming, but the long-term secular bull market since 2009 is still intact. Watch the May turning point and the key monthly support at 45728 for any trend reversal signals. S&P 500: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +3.78%; 10 Week +1.44%; 20 week +0.15%; 40 week +2.09% Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Moderately bullish. Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6760 and overhead resistance forming above at 6845. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Cautiously negative and turning. After only 2 months of decline the index has already broken key monthly supports and is trading extremely close to (and just above) the critical Monthly/Weekly Support at 6360. A sustained break below this level would confirm further weakness into the June cyclical turning point. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Still bullish overall but at a critical juncture. The secular bull market since 2009 and broadest trends remain intact with positive weekly to yearly signals, yet 2026 is a major cyclical turning point year (starting July 1). The S&P 500 is down 3.83% YTD and well below last year’s close, raising the risk of a correction into 2027. Summary: The S&P 500 remains in a short to medium term corrective phase with mixed signals and new pattern forming, but the long term secular bull market since 2009 is still intact. Watch the June turning point and the key monthly support at 6360 for any trend reversal signals. Nasdaq: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +4.44%; 10 Week +2.52%; 20 week +0.47% 40 week +2.27% Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Bullish. The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Bearish. The Stochastic tone on the Monthly level remains in a bearish broader posture at this time. Refer to the seasonals for targets in time (July/August). This market is still within the normal trading Monthly envelope. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Bullish overall. The Stochastic tone on the Yearly level remains in a bullish broader posture at this time. The secular bull market since 2009 and positive long term signals are intact. Summary: The Nasdaq remains in a short to medium term corrective phase with bearish signals, but the long-term secular bull market since 2009 is still intact. Watch the April and July/August turning points and the key monthly support at 2056 for any trend reversal signals. Silver: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +6.03%; 10 Week -3.25%; 20 week -1.18%; 40 week +25.96%. We use the 10 week moving average for our buy and sell signal confirmed by the Dow Jones Precious Metals Index. Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Moderately bullish. Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Silver Futures (COMEX), this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 73.61 and overhead resistance forming above at 80.565. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Cautiously neutral to bullish. Looking at the longer term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in January at 121.785. There was nine month rally from the previous low of 70.515. Since this last high, the market has corrected. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in April, this market has held above last month’s low of 61.21 reaching 69.61. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Bullish overall. The Silver Futures (COMEX) has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2026. Distinctly, we have found four Bullish Supports to date. This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Summary: Silver remains in a short to medium term neutral to bearish phase with caution required on the monthly level, but the long term secular bull market since 2020 is still intact. Watch the April turning point and the key monthly support at 61.21 for any trend reversal signals. Gold: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +3.20%; 10 Week -2.98%; 20 week +1.24%; 40 week +13.21%. We use the 10 week moving average for our buy and sell signal confirmed by the Dow Jones Precious Metals Index. Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Moderately bullish. Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Gold Futures (COMEX), this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 4746 and overhead resistance forming above at 5059. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Cautiously negative. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Looking at the longer term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in January at 5627. There was a fourteen month rally from the previous low of 4320. Since this last high, the market has corrected. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in April, this market has held above last month’s low of 4100 reaching 4580. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Bullish overall. The Gold Futures (COMEX) has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2026, which has been a run of 11 years. This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Summary: Gold remains moderately bullish on the short term daily/weekly level with caution required on the monthly level for a potential decline, but the long term secular bull market since 2015 (and 11-year run of new highs) is still intact. Watch the April turning point and the key monthly support at 3841 for any trend reversal signals. DJ Precious Metals (DJGSP): Trendline: 4 week moving average +10.13%; 10 Week -1.84%; 20 week +6.41%; 40 week +25.17%. 10 Week Moving Average is used to confirm gold and silver. Dollar: Trendlines: 4 week moving average -0.97%; 10 Week -0.11%; 20 week +0.04%; 40 week +0.16%. We use the 20 week moving average for buy/sell signal. The 10 week is confirmation. Dollar Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Bearish. From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the US Dollar Index, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 98.667. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Cautiously bullish but unconfirmed. Interestingly, the US Dollar Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 2 months since the low established back in January. Critical support still underlies this market at 97.748 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Mixed and consolidating within a broader bearish cycle. The historical perspective in the US Dollar Index included a rally from 2011 moving into a major high for 2022, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2025 forming a reactionary trend of 3 years bottoming at 96.218. Nevertheless, we have found two short term Yearly Bullish Supports to date from the turning point of 2008, which tends to warn that the 2022 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Support. Summary: The US Dollar remains bearish on the short term daily/weekly level with a cautiously bullish but unconfirmed medium term outlook, but the long term picture is mixed and consolidating within a broader bearish cycle since 2022. Watch the July 1, 2026 turning seasonal timing and the key monthly support at 97.748 for any trend reversal signals. Oil; West Texas Crude (WTIC): Trendlines: 4 week moving average -5.89%; 10 Week +11.60%; 20 week +31.91%; 40 week +41.59%. We use the 20 week moving average for buy/sell signal. 10 week used for confirmation. Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Moderately bearish. From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 97.50 and support forming below at 91.73. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Bullish phase but neutral within range. Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 3 months since the low established back in December 2025. Critical support still underlies this market at 76.60 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Bearish consolidation. The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 6 local highs which means it has been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2025 and the market has bounced back for the last year. Summary: NY Crude Oil remains moderately bearish on the short term daily/weekly level with a bullish phase on the medium term outlook, but the long term picture is still a protracted bearish consolidation since the 2008 high. Watch the key monthly support at 76.60 for any trend reversal signals. Energy Equipment, Services and Distribution ($DJUSOQ) Trendlines: 4 week moving average -0.32%; 10 Week +2.71%; 20 week +12.46%; 40 week +21.99%. We use the 20 week moving average for buy/sell signal. 10 week is the confirmation. Energy Infrastructure (using Alerian MLP ETF): Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Turning Back Down with Local Temporary Low. Daily: Turning Back Down. Weekly: Temp Low. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Local Temporary Low but constructive. Monthly: Local Low. Quarterly: New Pattern Forming. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Bullish. Monthly Indicating Ranges are Bullish across all categories (Momentum, Trend, Long Term Trend, Cyclical Strength). Long term monthly chart (back to 2018) shows a clear multi year recovery and secular uptrend since the 2020 low, with higher highs and higher lows extending into 2026. The ETF has maintained a constructive longer term posture consistent with energy infrastructure strength. Summary: AMLP shows short term weakness, Local Temporary Lows but remains strongly bullish on the monthly level and is forming a New Pattern on the quarterly timeframe. The longer term trend since 2020 remains positive and constructive. Bitcoin: Trendlines: 4 week moving average -4.20%; 10 Week +5.10%; 20 week -8.40%; 40 week -23.90%. We “can” use the 20 week moving average for buy/sell signal as it's the smoothest, but the volatility makes this very difficult to gauge. Likewise you can use the 10 week to confirm. Bitcoin Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Encountering Resistance / Moving Higher. Daily: Encountering Resistance. Weekly: Moving Higher. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): New Pattern Forming / Turning Back UP. Monthly: New Pattern Forming. Quarterly: Turning Back UP. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Not Enough History, but constructive long term recovery. The long term daily chart (Dec 2025–May 2026) shows a clear recovery from the December 2025 lows with higher highs and the price channel holding support near 65k–70k levels. Energy model and stochastic remain positive on the broader timeframe. Summary: Bitcoin shows mixed short term signals with daily resistance but weekly strength and a New Pattern Forming on the monthly timeframe. The quarterly shows it “Turning Back UP” and long term chart recovery from December 2025 lows remain constructive. Overall posture is neutral to bullish with caution on the monthly bearish momentum. Watch the April turning points and key support near 65k–70k for confirmation of any continuation higher. This aligns with the broader 2026 cyclical environment we’ve been monitoring. Ethereum: Trendlines: 4 week moving average +3.80%; 10 Week +4.60%; 20 week -9.20; 40 week -24.70%. We “can” use the 20 week moving average for buy/sell signal as it's the smoothest, but the volatility makes this very difficult to gauge. Likewise you can use the 10 week to confirm. Analysis: Short-term outlook (daily/weekly): Reaction High / Turning Back UP. Daily: Reaction High. Weekly: Turning Back UP. Medium-term outlook (monthly/quarterly): Moving Higher / CAUTION ADVISED. Monthly: Moving Higher. Quarterly: CAUTION ADVISED. Long-term outlook (yearly+): Not Enough History, but constructive longer term recovery. The long-term daily chart (Dec 2025–May 2026) shows a clear recovery from the December 2025 lows with higher highs and the price channel holding support near 1900–2200 levels. Summary: Ethereum shows mixed short term signals with a Local High on the daily and Turning Back UP on the weekly and Moving Higher monthly. Quarterly caution is noted, while the longer term chart (Dec 2025 onward) displays a constructive recovery from the December lows. Overall posture is neutral to bullish with short term strength but longer term monthly bearish momentum still in play. Watch the April turning points and key support near 1900–2200 for confirmation of any continuation higher. This aligns with the broader 2026 cyclical environment we’ve been monitoring. Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects general market observations and historical patterns. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future results. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not predict future outcomes. Peace, Love, Espresso. ☮️💕☕️ May we all grow exponentially. 📈 The Cap 🫡