source avatarSherlock | DeFi Researcher

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My favourite weekly strategy on Bitcoin has a 93% win rate since 2017. 16 triggers with only 1 failure. Here is the full system. It starts with identifying the weekly range. You need four consecutive weekly candles to close inside the range of a single previous weekly candle. Four weeks of price being compressed inside one candle's high and low. When that happens, the market looks dead but it is the opposite. Four weeks of compression means smart money is loading positions while retail thinks nothing is happening, and the breakout reveals which side they loaded. Once the range is established, you wait for one of four triggers. Trigger 1, sweep of the range high and close back inside the range. Price breaks above the high, grabs the liquidity sitting above it, and closes the week back inside. That is a short signal. The breakout was fake, the stops above got taken, and now price reverses. Trigger 2, weekly close above the range high. Price does not just wick above, it closes above. That is a long signal. The breakout is real and you ride it. Trigger 3, sweep of the range low and close back inside the range. Price breaks below the low, grabs the liquidity sitting underneath, and closes back inside. That is a long signal. The breakdown was fake, the stops below got taken, and now price reverses. Trigger 4, weekly close below the range low. Price does not just wick below, it closes below. That is a short signal. The breakdown is real. The logic behind all four triggers is the same. When price has been compressed inside a range for four weeks, the first move out of that range either traps people or confirms direction. A sweep that closes back inside means the breakout was a liquidity grab. A close outside means the move is real. This is the cleanest weekly strategy I have ever used and only requires checking the chart once a week on Sunday night.

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