The Fear & Greed Index is at 8—a level of extreme fear, the lowest since the Terra/Luna collapse in June 2022. Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. CPI will be released. Expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%, primarily driven by energy prices, with Brent crude up 63% month-over-month. However, on prediction markets, the probability of CPI exceeding 3.8% has collapsed from 35% to just 1% over the past 30 days—the tail risk has nearly vanished. BTC is down approximately 43% from its all-time high of $126K, reflecting extreme fear; the tail risk is already priced in. What’s more interesting than the actual release is what the market has already priced in.