This signal suggests that one final dump in Bitcoin’s price is still likely to happen. A very interesting insight I found using Alpha AI is that when the Investor Price falls below the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price, Bitcoin tends to move toward forming a cycle bottom. Here is what Alpha AI highlighted: “Looking at the On-Chain Price Dynamics chart for Bitcoin, the downward crossover of the Investor Price below the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price is a structurally important signal because it reflects a shift in who is setting the market’s cost basis. Why this crossover tends to precede decline and accumulation Loss of broad investor confidence The Investor Price represents the average cost of economically active coins. When it falls below the LTH Realized Price, it means newer and more active capital has accepted lower prices than long-term holders paid. This usually happens after distribution phases, when demand weakens and marginal buyers step back. Long-term holders become the structural anchor Long-term holders historically sell less when price approaches or dips below their cost basis. As Investor Price moves under LTH Realized Price, market control shifts from speculative participants to conviction holders, slowing volatility but also suppressing upside momentum. Capital rotation, not capitulation This crossover does not usually mark panic bottoms. Instead, it signals a transition phase where weaker hands exit while stronger hands gradually absorb supply. That absorption process takes time, which is why price often drifts or declines into an intermediate accumulation range. Compression of upside expectations With Investor Price below LTH Realized Price, rallies tend to meet supply from investors seeking to exit at breakeven. This caps upside and reinforces sideways to downward price behavior until a new demand impulse appears. Why this matters from a cycle perspective Historically, this structure aligns with mid-cycle resets rather than final bottoms. It reflects a market digesting prior excesses, rebuilding cost bases, and transferring coins toward more patient holders. The environment favors time-based accumulation over momentum-driven expansion. An awareness alert becomes useful when these two metrics approach each other again, as a decisive reclaim of the Investor Price above the LTH Realized Price often signals renewed risk appetite and trend re-acceleration.”