there’s a scenario where everyone wins (short term) Oil $WTI #BRENTOIL sideways/up → even amidst a potential ceasefire the operations of the strait won’t be reverted to pre-conflict. On average the strait saw 60 ships pass through on a 7 day moving average the problem is there’s rumours of a tanker backlog approaching 180M BBLs awaiting movement which take around ~ 3 months to get back on track. Also not factoring countries having to negotiate on tolls to get through the new regime, this overhang is notable. $BTC Bitcoin up → severe compression right now, in that, we are printing higher lows. A potential ceasefire(no matter how binding/truthful) could see us print the relief bounce into the 80ks. RR for shorts are dwindling at current prices. S&P $SPX up → Couple of weeks of downtrend, were now also due for some meaningful relief, absorbed some bad headlines last week and still reclaimed 6500. Can anticipate a move to 6800/6900 whilst still being cautious of further downside The key thing to look out for is how credible markets find the ceasefire. credible enough to spark risk appetite, not credible enough to collapse the oil supply disruption premium