Strait of Hormuz May Mirror the Battle of the Bulge (views are my own) - The third 50% S&P 500 drawdown since 2000 has begun - Bitcoin's next support likely around $50,000 on the way toward $10,000 - WTI crude oil more likely near $50 vs. $100 by midterms - Corn more likely $4 than above $5 by midterms - T-bond yield more likely 4% than above 5% - Metals have peaked: gold and silver 2026 highs could endure for years - Post inflation-deflation, US Treasuries to take alpha in 2026 - 2026 base case for stock market volatility to rise in early days; 180-day SPX, NDX volatility remain near decade lows - What proves me wrong: some combination of staying above $75,000 Bitcoin, $6 copper, $85 silver, $5,000 gold, 5% long bond yield (a potential lose-lose) Trend Is Your Friend - In 2026 It May Be Pump-then-Dump, with Crude Next: - US natural gas (front future) was up 100% YTD to its January peak, now down about 20%, Bitcoin was up 11%, now down 24%. Silver was +63%, now minus 3%. Copper was +10%, now minus 3%. Gold was up 25%, now about 4% - Pump-then-dump dynamics and surging volatility contagion: S&P 500 60-day volatility is essentially flat in 2026 to March 27 despite crude oil and gold volatility surging 140% an 65% - Simple reversion can be profound: The graphic features a basket of US Treasuries still near a roughly 4-decade low vs. gold, alongside rolling-over Bitcoin Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/TDRPudx2Ws {BI COMD} #Commodities #stockmarket #bitcoin @BBGIntelligence