The MVRV price on #Bitcoin is a great metric for determining whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued. According to current metrics, Bitcoin is moving into undervalued areas. These areas are comparable to previous bear market low areas: - H2 2022 - COVID Crash 2020 - Q4 2018 - The entire bear market year in 2015. This is an important note to take. However, this chart shows more data points that are important for an investor in this ecosystem to consider. The MVRV score is a ratio of the actual current market price vs. the median realized price. Basically, the price at which Bitcoin is bought. Price falls • people are going underwater • they will start to sell • lower prices signal people to buy the actual asset • rotation starts, and the trend reverses. Standard market dynamics on an asset. However, the chart shows when these are heavily 'negative' and 'positive' relative to the realized price. This can explicitly mean overvaluation vs. undervaluation. The previous peaks in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 were high. This resonates perfectly with the retail sentiment during those periods. The interesting part is the previous run on #Bitcoin. The MVRV score didn't spike, not at all. My thesis, in that light, is that we've seen a shallow bull cycle without any retail FOMO. Because we've seen such a case, we don't need to see a very deep market correction either, as the upside volatility hasn't peaked, and therefore the downside volatility doesn't need to peak either. The chances that we've seen the low have significantly increased, despite most people expecting lower prices.

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