BEAR MARKET RALLY? Is Bitcoin repeating the 2022 scenario differently? The current structure is worryingly repeating the 2022 pattern. - Bitcoin has lost the 365D MA, dropping by about 19%, then rebounding by more than 21%. And now, the price of #BTC is testing the 365D MA from the bottom. => BTC has not yet reclaimed this line. This is a retest in a downtrend, not a breakout in an uptrend. - But currently, the market sentiment is out of sync with the price structure. Sentiment is shifting towards expectations of an ETF, institutional inflows, and the return of an altseason (from posts by KOLs and reports from organizations I've read - all expecting a bull market for 2026). - But structurally, BTC is still below the cycle MA, and even on-chain data does not support a new bull market. Selling pressure has eased, but active buying has not yet returned. => Less bad doesn't mean better. This is a technical rebound due to diminished selling pressure, not a buildup for a new uptrend. *We have 2 scenarios at the moment: 1- The base scenario is still negative. If #BTC continues to be rejected at the 365D MA, the market will form a lower high on the weekly chart - a classic feature of a bear market. In this case, there's a high probability that the price will return to test the old low, or even open a deeper decline. - If the price breaks above 100k and exceeds the MA line, there's still a chance of a further drop to the lower range as in 2022 - at which point, an event like the Luna crash would be needed to trigger it. 2- More optimistically, like CZ calling for a 2026 bull market, then Bitcoin must close the week clearly above the 365D MA and hold it for several consecutive weeks. Only then can we talk about a shift in the market regime from bear to bull, at which point a new ATH for BTC is possible. - Moreover, Bitcoin's two-year moving average is currently around $84,500. Establishing clearly below this level would confirm a bear market and #BTC would have a high probability of dropping to 6xk - What do you guys think? Which scenario is more likely?