BTC update. Unfollowed a few accounts lately for cause. 'Cause' in trading is insisting that there is only one option and you will be right and everyone else wrong. Great way to teach people how to get rekt. Yes there's still a chance of a new ATH, but the probability diminishes as each week goes by. I'll give you my latest take at the end. Summary: 👉 Bottom formation took 8 weeks - totally normal for a major bottom, therefore suggests a sustained move up is coming, whether a bearish retest or ATH. Called the bottom 'high probability' about a month ago. 👉 Lots of liquidity (shown on chart) looks like being left behind if market makers don't take it this week. They have gone a little quiet the last few days - they wait for weakness/news/fud. If they take it this week, it will impact sentiment badly and stall progress. If not, they will get it later on regardless. 👉 Expecting this current retrace to hit either 94.3 (already just done) or 93.1 shown on the chart (0.618 fib of the move up). 👉 I've circled all the potential points of failure for the bearish retest. I've also zoomed the chart out enough for context - to see just how big a task it will be for price to get back to the highs. The profit taking will be massive - that will be the main problem even if equities are green. 👉 Here's how I rate the levels: 📊 97.8 - in process, unlikely to fail 📊103.1 - unlikely to reject here imo but be prepared 📊107.5 - high probability rejection point (I will be shorting here with tight stops as well as still being long) 📊111.3 - unlikely to reject here imo but be prepared 📊116.1 - very high probability rejection point (will be shorting here again but also still long) 📊122.6 - quite honestly, i don't think price will get to this level if it isn't going to keep going up 👉 Looks like the daily cycle came in short and 'timed out' as expected (no capitulation) on 1 Jan, 10 Jan or 12 Jan (red vertical lines). Or even Dec 18 (see goldnguitars in the links below). This suggests up action for about another 4 weeks if it is right translated. The next daily cycle low should be early March. 👉 I'm expecting the weekly cycle (last low on 20 Nov) to be left translated (last weekly cycle of the bull usually left translates to introduce the bear) - which also suggests up action until 20 Feb, then down. 👉 This means that price would need to go nearly vertical to achieve a new ATH in that short time frame. 👉 Equities are also expected to blow off in the next month or two. As long as equities are green, BTC will probably keep climbing. 👉 All of the above is why I think people are wasting their money if they are already building a swing short. 107k is the earliest I would consider. 👉 But... and this is important, we could be a simulation in which: 📈 Trump/FED pumps the markets all the way to the midterms 📈 fiat debasement and geopolitical fear pumps gold and btc to new highs 📈 Trump revalues the gold reserves causing chaos and instant repricing of gold and BTC 🤣 📈 Raul Pal/Julien Bittel are right and its a 5 year cycle now Any of these would mean a new ATH which would likely happen in the March/April daily cycle. In which case the 1.618 fib of earlier pumps (which has held true all cycle so far) gives a target of about 147k. If so, will anyone be game to 'sell in May and walk away?' Currently I'd give the ATH option about a 5-7% chance of happening in the next 4-5 weeks, and about 15-17% chance of the simulation happening overall. I will have a long position just in case. It was only 6 weeks ago I gave it about 45% chance, but time is marching on. Let's see what happens at 103 and 107k and if equities pump or not and then reassess. Lastly, here's some good follows related to the above for your collection: https://t.co/PCORr73U4A https://t.co/rzsqvlQ81m https://t.co/7rc9Ntj6SD https://t.co/rnKS4WSHCC https://t.co/p9eAkAi7fR https://t.co/Mb0n9t9zdI https://t.co/gi84CIQWMX (aixbt on magic mushrooms imo)