**BEAR MARKET RALLY? IS BITCOIN REPLAYING THE 2022 PLAYBOOK IN A DIFFERENT WAY?** The current structure is worryingly repeating the 2022 pattern. - Bitcoin has lost the 365D MA, dropped about 19%, then rallied over 21%. Now, the price of $BTC is testing the 365D MA from below again. => Currently, BTC has not reclaimed this level. This is a retest within a downtrend, not a breakout in an uptrend. - However, market sentiment is currently out of sync with the price structure. Sentiment is turning more optimistic about the ETF narrative, institutional flows, and the potential return of an altseason (based on posts from KOLs and reports from institutions I've read — all of which are bullish on a 2026 bull market). - But structurally, BTC is still below the cycle's moving average. On-chain data also does not support a new bull market. Selling pressure has decreased, but active buying flows have not returned yet. => Less bad does not mean better. This is a technical rebound due to exhausted selling pressure, not a buildup for a new bullish cycle. *We have two possible scenarios at this point:* 1. **Base case remains negative.** If $BTC continues to be rejected at the 365D MA, the market will form a lower high on the weekly chart — a classic bear market pattern. In that case, the price is likely to retest the old lows, or even open a deeper downtrend. - If the price breaks above $100k and surpasses the MA, there is still a chance it will fall back to the lower range as in 2022 — at that point, an event like the Luna collapse would be needed. 2. **More positive scenario, like CZ calling for a 2026 bull market**, Bitcoin must close the week clearly above the 365D MA and hold it for several consecutive weeks. Only then can we talk about a market regime shift from bear to bull, making a new ATH for BTC plausible. - Additionally, Bitcoin's 2-year moving average is currently around $84,500. A clear and sustained close below this level would confirm a bear market, with a high probability of $BTC dropping to the 60k range. - What are your thoughts, everyone? Which scenario is more likely to play out?