Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Finally Breaking? I’ve had a growing suspicion that it might be - or at least weakening. Bitcoin is now roughly 1,080 days removed from its last major cycle low. Historically, peaks have landed around 1,060-1,070 days, putting us right on the edge of where past bull markets topped - and near the point where a real deviation becomes statistically meaningful. The usual playbook says Bitcoin peaks 12–18 months after a halving (the last one was April 2024). If that pattern held, we’d expect a euphoric top between April and October 2025. But so far, there’s been no mania phase. Altcoins haven’t caught fire, sentiment’s in the gutter, and most investors either sold early or sat frozen waiting for confirmation that never came. That might explain why this cycle feels different: the crowd tried to front-run the four-year cycle - and in doing so, may have broken it. And maybe when that wave of early selling finally runs its course, Bitcoin could break free from its old pattern and begin charting a more mature, liquidity-driven path into 2026 - punishing early sellers in the process. Also, we only really have three real data points to define this cycle. There isn’t enough history to call any metric “law.” MVRV, HODL Waves, Puell Multiple - interesting, but not infallible. Eventually, the four-year cycle will break - if not now, then probably next time. Whether that means Bitcoin’s entering a new era of institutional flows and real-world adoption, or simply rewriting its pattern, is what makes this moment so fascinating.