After the AVGO earnings call, the stock recovered, primarily due to strong long-term AI guidance. Initially, AVGO dropped about 4% post-market as Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8B slightly missed expectations of $35.0B–$35.1B. However, the stock rebounded significantly after the earnings call, as management’s 2027–2028 AI roadmap far outweighed the minor guidance miss that had initially concerned the market. The most critical statement was Broadcom’s expectation that AI revenue will approximately double to $115B in FY27, and AI semiconductor revenue could double again to $230B in FY28. If this trajectory materializes, the market is now re-pricing the AI revenue curve over the next two years. Moreover, this was not just about TAM—Hock Tan emphasized that the supply required for 2027 has already been secured, indicating extremely high visibility into next year’s growth. Networking is not a bottleneck either; management believes AI networking growth over the next few years will match the pace of XPU growth. On the customer roadmap side: OpenAI’s Jalapeno project plans to deploy approximately 1.3GW in 2027 and over 5GW in 2028 with Jalapeno plus the next-generation XPU; Broadcom is already collaborating with OpenAI on the third-generation XPU. Meanwhile, Meta has three more generations of MTIA accelerators planned through the end of 2027, with deployment scale of approximately 3GW expected in 2028. While the short-term Q4 guidance saw a minor miss, the visibility into AI growth for 2027–2028 has been substantially elevated.
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