Wall Street just reset its models on $ASTS this morning, and the spread between the bulls and the skeptics is nearly $60 per share. Today’s Post-Q3 Ratings (11.10.2026): • Clear Street: Buy, $115 → $102 • Berenberg: Buy, $92 (Maintained) • B. Riley: Neutral, $65 → $48 • BofA: Neutral, $80 → $45 • UBS: Neutral, $78 → $43 What’s driving the divide? Bears/Neutrals (BofA, UBS) are penalizing the stock for constellation scaling delays and the execution risk of spending $1.3B+ to build the Blacklift rocket from scratch. Bulls (Clear Street, Berenberg) view launch bottlenecks as temporary timing noise, focusing instead on the $3.2B cash fortress, government/sovereign contract wins (~$100M Space Force + ~$1B Japan JV), and a carrier-friendly model that doesn't compete directly with telecom partners. Interestingly, BofA also dropped a notable upside catalyst in its note: the possibility of a commercial deal with T-Mobile alongside new sovereign contracts. Execution on launches over the next two quarters decides who’s right.
Karol KozickiShare
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