source avatarDanny Marques | Investing Informant

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I think we’ll look back at the volatility of the past few weeks across the AI infrastructure space and recognize just how far sentiment became disconnected from the underlying opportunity. There are legitimate concerns around how this enormous buildout gets financed, the sustainability of certain capital structures, and whether some developers can commercially execute. Those are healthy discussions to have, and not every company or project will succeed. But I think the market took the election results and began pricing in something resembling a complete halt to data center development. Wayyyy too extreme of a take in my opinion. Different states will take different approaches to regulation, and some projects will undoubtedly face delays or higher development costs. But I don’t believe the most extreme policy outcomes being feared are necessarily the most probable. Listening to some of the recent comments from Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, I came away more encouraged than I expected. There’s a recognition that economic development and protecting local communities don’t have to be mutually exclusive. Ensuring that data centers create jobs, protect water resources, and don’t shift infrastructure costs onto ordinary ratepayers seems entirely reasonable to me. The question is HOW those objectives translate into actual policy. A temporary moratorium on new approvals is a legitimate risk, but that’s very different from permanently shutting down an industry. The market also overlooks that more restrictive development conditions make existing infrastructure, specifically already-permitted, energized capacity, and projects with secured power, considerably more valuable if new supply becomes harder to deliver. In terms of the magnitude of the selling and unwinding we saw, it’s a result of how many investors are expressing their exposure, with leverage. That amplifies selling well beyond what a change in fundamentals might otherwise justify. The volatility is crazy lol i can’t deny it. Markets have a tendency to extrapolate fear just as aggressively as they extrapolate optimism. Neither extreme is particularly useful when you’re trying to make a long-term investment decision. I still think regulatory and financing risks are real but there’s a meaningful difference between an industry facing greater (and healthy) scrutiny and one whose long-term opportunity is disappearing.

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