XRP may be heading toward a significant price recovery if a rare technical signal repeating across multiple market cycles holds true again.
Based on analysis, a long-term ascending channel that has guided the token’s price since 2017 currently has XRP sitting just above its lower support boundary — a position that, combined with a deeply depressed momentum reading, has analysts watching closely.
A Pattern Decades In The Making
The monthly relative strength index for XRP has fallen to 42.7, according to analysis published by market commentator Celal Kucuker.
That reading places it near the lowest levels recorded in the token’s trading history, a range that has shown up only three times before — in November 2015, March 2020, and August 2022. Each instance was followed by a substantial price run higher.
The ripple:native monthly chart is screaming.
2017 — XRP exploded. 2021 — XRP exploded. 2024 — XRP exploded. Is 2026 next? Ripple before every major rally, this momentum indicator reached the same extreme low zone. Now it’s back at historical levels once again. pic.twitter.com/ElwEx7ANPW
— Celal Kucuker (@CelalKucuker) June 3, 2026
The 2015 episode came while XRP was trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the price having pulled back sharply to around $0.0040 and the monthly RSI landing at 46.7.
That setup preceded the broad 2017 rally cycle. In March 2020, during a period of widespread market selling, the monthly RSI fell to 43.7 and the token reached a low near $0.104 before rebounding to $1.97 by April 2021.
A third occurrence came in August 2022, when prices dropped to $0.31 and the RSI reached 43.9. XRP eventually climbed to $3.40 by January 2025.
What The Chart Is Showing Now
XRP has dropped more than 10% in June alone, with the first four days of the month bringing the token to multi-month lows around $1.18. A 9% decline was recorded in the last week.
Despite the selling pressure, reports indicate the token has held above the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has contained its price movements for nearly a decade.
Kucuker’s analysis highlights that what sets the current setup apart is the combination of two conditions occurring together: price holding at long-term structural support while the monthly momentum indicator has already fallen back to historically low ground.
In prior cycles, momentum reached these depths either at the same time as the price bottom or just before a sustained recovery began.
The Channel’s Upper End In SightShould the same pattern play out, the initial price target would be the upper resistance line of the ascending channel. Reports note that each time XRP has tested the channel’s lower support, it has eventually moved toward the upper boundary.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView