XRP is in a compression phase, and technical analysis indicates that the price action may be approaching a point where patience turns into panic before direction finally becomes clear.
XRP’s chart setup is filled with uncertainty, but there’s one critical support level that could decide XRP’s next move and another price level it needs to overcome for bullish confirmation.
XRP’s Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern
XRP’s price action has been on a downward path of lower highs since the beginning of the year, and this extends to a correction since its July 2025 peak at $3.65. This price action, according to technical analysis done by popular crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, has led to the formation of a descending broadening wedge on XRP’s higher-timeframe chart.
A descending broadening wedge pattern often appears during late-stage accumulation phases, with expanding volatility constrained within downward-sloping boundaries rather than signaling outright weakness.
“This is NOT a random formation,” the analyst wrote. “Historically, these structures often produce final capitulation THEN violent expansion.”
According to Egrag Crypto’s chart, the formation carries a 57% probability of upside resolution against a 43% probability of further downside. Current price action supports a downward move. This is why EGRAG described the current phase as short-term bearish compression, even though the larger macro structure is still bullish unless the structure breaks fully.
XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X
The Levels That Define Everything
The most important downside level on the chart is $1.11. Egrag noted this as critical support, and it acts as the boundary between normal volatility inside the structure and a more dangerous breakdown. XRP is currently trading around $1.36 and below moving averages, including the EMA20 at $1.391, the EMA50 at $1.404, and the EMA200 at $1.684; the distance to that support level is not comfortable.
A loss of $1.11 would place XRP in a weaker technical position and lead to an extreme 70% flush scenario to $0.32. That level is not the analyst’s base case, but it shows the type of liquidity sweep that can happen if the descending broadening wedge breaks in the wrong direction.
The bullish side of the analysis will not begin until XRP confirms a move above $3. The analyst also noted that a weekly or monthly reclaim above $2.65 to $3 would change everything, because that would mean XRP has broken back above the upper resistance area that has contained the broadening wedge.
The CLARITY Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and still awaits a Senate floor vote, could pull an additional $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows into XRP. This is the kind of capital movement that could realistically drive an XRP price retest of that zone.
Should XRP reclaim and hold above $3, Egrag’s expansion targets stretch from $7 to $11.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView