XRP Falls 62.5% from $3.6 Peak, Enters Full-Blown Bear Market

Market data indicates that XRP may have officially entered a full-blown bear market, which could lead to steeper declines.

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XRP has stayed under consistent selling pressure for more than six months, with data showing a sharp drop from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.6. The token has now fallen 62.5% from that peak, confirming a long stretch of weakness that has weighed on investor confidence.

Amid the ongoing downtrend, the market structure suggests XRP may have already moved into a full-blown bear market. Based on his view, price could fall further, with a possible bottom between $0.80 and $0.70 before any strong recovery begins.

• XRP has fallen 62.5% from its $3.6 peak in July 2025, confirming a prolonged downtrend that has lasted over six months.
• Amid the downward price action, the current market structure indicates that XRP may have now slipped into a full-blown bear market.
• XRP confirmed this bearish phase when it lost the key $1.80 support on Jan. 30, 2026, after defending it for over a year.
• Data suggests the current bear market could bottom between $0.70 and $0.80, based on historical patterns around the Gaussian Channel.
• The bearish outlook may only weaken if XRP breaks and holds above $1.65.

This structure was highlighted by market analyst Chart Nerd in a recent commentary. He mentioned $1.80 as the level that kept XRP afloat. XRP had defended this level for 13 months, but the structure changed when the price closed below $1.80 on Jan. 30, 2026. That move confirmed the shift into a bear market.

Since dropping below $1.80, XRP has not managed to return to that level. Instead, it has continued to trade lower. At the time of his analysis, XRP was priced at $1.35, which puts it 25% below the $1.80 level. This steady weakness supports the suggestion that the market has fully turned bearish.

Meanwhile, some XRP community members pushed back on certain aspects of Chart Nerd’s analysis. One investor argued that XRP does not need a typical bull run to rise, arguing that real-world use and institutional adoption could push prices higher on their own.

Responding, Chart Nerd explained that he never said XRP depends only on bull runs. He agreed that adoption and real use will help drive value over time and added that he still sees strong future price targets. However, the analyst also stressed that market cycles will not disappear. According to him, bearish phases will still happen even with big institutions involved.

In a separate analysis, Chart Nerd leveraged XRP’s past price movements around the 3-month Gaussian Channel to determine its possible bottom for the ongoing bear market. Data confirms that since 2013, XRP has always bottomed at the upper band of the Gaussian Channel.

Specifically, after the December 2013 peak of $0.0613, XRP entered a bear market and later dropped to $0.003 in January 2017, a level that matched the upper band of the Gaussian Channel.

The same pattern appeared after the January 2018 peak of $3.31, when XRP fell to $0.1140 in March 2020. This trend continued after the April 2021 peak of $1.96, when XRP declined to $0.28 in June 2022 on the back of the Terra ecosystem collapse.

In each case, the lowest price point aligned with the support at the lower band of the 3-month Gaussian Channel. Based on this pattern, Chart Nerd believes the current cycle, which started after the July 2025 peak of $3.6, could bottom between $0.70 and $0.80, as this area also aligns with the Gaussian Channel’s upper band.