Key Insights
- XRP broke below its 200-week moving average at $1.42 for the first time since November 2024, shifting long-term technical structure toward correction.
- Weekly RSI readings in the low 30s signal sustained selling pressure, while $1.12 and $1 remain critical support levels for traders.
- US Q4 2025 GDP forecasts range from 1 percent to 3.6 percent, setting up macro-driven volatility across crypto markets, including XRP.
XRP dropped below its 200-week moving average near $1.42 on Feb. 19, marking its first break under that level since November 2024. Traders closely tracked the move, as it came just one day before the United States releases its advance estimate for Q4 2025 gross domestic product.
The breakdown shifts the technical outlook from consolidation to correction. Moreover, the 200-week average had acted as a structural floor for months, reinforcing bullish control during prior pullbacks.
Charts Signal Persistent Selling Pressure
On the weekly chart of Bitfinex, XRP closed beneath the $1.419 benchmark that previously supported price rebounds. Consequently, momentum indicators now reflect sustained weakness rather than panic-driven liquidation.
The Relative Strength Index holds in the low 30s, indicating steady selling activity. Additionally, traders now monitor $1.1211, the low from early February, and the $1 mark, where XRP found support during the large-scale Black Friday liquidation event in late 2024.
Immediate resistance stands between $1.49 and $1.50. Recent relief rallies stalled in that zone, confirming it as a near-term ceiling.
GDP Data Adds Macro Tension
The technical break unfolded as markets prepared for fresh macroeconomic data. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its Q4 2025 GDP estimate on Feb. 20, and investors expect moderation from the prior quarter’s 4.4 percent growth pace.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects 3.6 percent annualized growth through its GDPNow model. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast estimates 2.7 percent, while the broader consensus ranges between 1 percent and 2.5 percent.
Stronger data could steady risk assets. However, weaker numbers may lift the dollar and extend pressure across high-beta cryptocurrencies.
On-Chain Activity and Sentiment Diverge
Network data shows a decline in on-chain activity across the XRP Ledger in recent weeks. Significantly, social sentiment tells a different story, as analytics firm Santiment reports a five-week high in bullish commentary.
Institutional decentralized finance updates, including adjustments to the network’s Permissioned DEX framework, have fueled online optimism. Nevertheless, price action has yet to reflect that sentiment shift.
XRP now trades below a multiyear technical benchmark while macro uncertainty builds. The upcoming GDP release will likely influence whether the current decline extends or stabilizes in the near term.