BlockBeats news, July 1: The World Gold Council today released "The Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market 2026," forecasting that for the second half of the year, the gold valuation framework indicates gold will continue to serve as a barometer for global macroeconomic conditions, with three primary possible scenarios.
At current levels, gold prices align closely with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once in 2026, likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank are all anticipated to tighten policy; and U.S. second-quarter inflation is expected to peak near 3.9%.
If the above environment remains largely unchanged, gold prices are expected to trade around $4,100 per ounce this year, with a volatility range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest rate expectations shift, gold could regain upward momentum; however, only a sufficiently strong signal of global economic slowdown is likely to drive gold prices above this level. On the downside, a stronger U.S. dollar, larger-than-expected rate hikes, and a rebound in market risk appetite represent the main headwinds for gold; if gold prices remain below $4,000 per ounce for an extended period, it could trigger further selling.
However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall more than 10% from current levels, it could trigger "buy on dips" demand from long-term investors across multiple regions.