World Gold Council: Fed Rate Hikes May Surprisingly Benefit Gold

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Friday, June 5, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. World Gold Council: The Fed's rate hike may unexpectedly benefit gold.

2. The percentage of drought-affected areas in U.S. soybean regions is 28%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last week.

3. Starting at 24:00 on June 4, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by RMB 525 and RMB 505 per ton, respectively.

4. Fubao Information: Lithium carbonate inventory is 98,400 tons, down 0.72% week-over-week (a decrease of 709 tons from the previous period).

5. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 76.466 million standard cases, a decrease of 357,000 standard cases环比.

6. This summer, the maximum power load of the State Grid will exceed 1.3 billion kilowatts, an increase of approximately 6% year-over-year.

7. This week, the apparent demand for rebar is 2.1317 million tons, a decrease of 0.1908 million tons from last week, representing a decline of 8.22%.

1. According to Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya: Sources say the agreement on releasing frozen Iranian funds has entered its final stage. Proposals to establish a dedicated fund to hold the frozen Iranian assets are under discussion, with the main obstacle being the mechanism for disposing of some of the frozen Iranian funds.

2. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials revealed that President Trump has privately informed his aides that he would consider terminating the ceasefire agreement with Iran if Tehran causes the death of American soldiers. Trump’s reluctance to reignite hostilities suggests he may be willing to tolerate sporadic clashes lasting weeks or even months to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.

3. According to CCTV News, based on information from State Grid, the maximum electricity load in State Grid’s operating area this summer is projected to exceed 1.3 billion kilowatts, an increase of approximately 6% compared to the same period last year.

4. For the week ending May 30, initial jobless claims in the United States came in at 225,000, higher than the expected 213,000 and the revised prior value of 212,000, marking the highest level since the first week of February. The four-week moving average rose to 214,750, up from 208,250 the previous week. Continuing claims stood at 1.777 million, slightly below the expected 1.780 million. The increase in initial claims suggests a modest weakening in labor market conditions, but levels remain relatively low and stable.

5. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: A ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, is a preliminary condition for Iran to end its war with the United States.

6. On the 4th, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi movement in Yemen, stated that the Houthis are prepared to respond to any developments in the situation. He added that the Houthis are maintaining full coordination with various resistance forces regarding the situations in Lebanon and Palestine.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 0.79% to $4,502.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.58% to $74.12 per ounce. Uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank’s interest rate moves, along with rising inflation due to Middle East tensions, led to a final gain amid mixed market sentiment.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract closed down 3.24% at $92.91 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract fell 2.5% to $95.36 per barrel. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon led to a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously pushed oil prices higher. Market expectations are rising for a potential oil-related agreement stemming from U.S.-Iran negotiations, combined with traders taking profits and a concentrated exit by long positions, triggering oil selling. The improved expectations from the ceasefire announcement dominated this decline in oil prices.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME copper rose 0.55% to $13,901.5 per ton, LME lead fell 0.35% to $2,016.5 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.43% to $3,595 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.88% to $3,671 per ton, LME nickel fell 1.25% to $18,635 per ton, and LME tin fell 2.54% to $55,950 per ton.

1. According to Mysteel, for the week ending June 4, rebar production shifted from increase to decrease, apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week, mill inventories turned from decline to increase, and social inventories declined for the twelfth consecutive week. Rebar production was 2.1215 million tons, a decrease of 95,200 tons from the previous week, or 4.29%; apparent demand for rebar was 2.1317 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week, or 8.22%.

2. The OECD 2026 Steel Outlook forecasts that global excess steel capacity will reach 745 million tons by 2028, 319 million tons higher than the OECD’s current steel production. By 2028, planned additional capacity could reach up to 139 million tons, a 5.7% increase from 2025 levels, while demand growth is expected to remain sluggish, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.9%.

3. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in the late May 2026, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises amounted to 15.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.94 million tons or 15.7% compared to the previous decadal period. These enterprises produced a total of 22.07 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.006 million tons, down 4.3%环比.

1. According to data from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending June 3, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories fell by 1.353 million barrels to a 64-week low of 19.35 million barrels. Middle distillate inventories dropped by 1.667 million barrels to a 12-week low of 7.297 million barrels. Light distillate inventories declined by 3.122 million barrels to a 34-week low of 11.496 million barrels.

2. According to the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during this round of refined oil price adjustment period, international oil prices first declined and then rose. Starting at 24:00 on June 4, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by RMB 525 and RMB 505 per ton, respectively. On average nationwide, the prices of Grade 92 gasoline, Grade 95 gasoline, and Grade 0 diesel were each reduced by RMB 0.41, RMB 0.44, and RMB 0.43 per liter, respectively. Filling a 50-liter tank with Grade 92 gasoline will save RMB 20.5.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of June 4, 2026, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 76.466 million standard boxes, down by 0.357 million standard boxes环比, or -0.47%环比, and up by 9.62%同比. The inventory duration stands at 34.5 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers amounted to 1.7178 million tons, an increase of 0.0132 million tons from Monday, up 0.77%. Of this, light soda ash inventory was 1.0441 million tons, up by 0.0131 million tons环比, and heavy soda ash inventory was 0.6737 million tons, up by 0.0001 million tons环比.

4. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated, "I have met with the Saudi Minister of Energy, and we both agree that there is uncertainty in oil demand. All estimates for the oil market should be significantly revised. OPEC+ is capable of offsetting the impact of changes in the global energy sector."

1. According to Fubao Information survey data: as of June 4, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 25,200 tons, up 1.2% week-over-week (an increase of 300 tons from the previous period); lithium carbonate inventory stood at 98,400 tons, down 0.72% week-over-week (a decrease of 709 tons from the previous period).

2. According to Mysteel’s research, an alumina plant in Guizhou resumed operations and began feeding material in late May and has since gradually started producing finished goods; however, initial supply remains unstable, with short-term operational capacity currently maintained at approximately 500,000 tons per year. Further changes in capacity will continue to be monitored.

3. Despite again receiving the largest copper concentrate export quota under the government’s exemption policy, Mopani Copper Mines, a subsidiary of International Resources Holding in Zambia, stated it has no plans to export copper concentrate.

4. In its gold market commentary report released on June 4, the World Gold Council wrote that looking ahead, rising inflation pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. We believe that when rate hikes occur, they may paradoxically benefit gold. Historical data shows that in over 50% of cases, gold has performed positively following rate hikes.

1. Metallurgical coal continues to rise, with tight supply and rising demand reinforcing each other.

China Everbright Futures stated that on the supply side, June is National Safety Production Month, during which coal mines in major production regions have prioritized safety inspections, significantly constraining short-term capacity release and maintaining a tight supply situation for coking coal. Under this backdrop, coking enterprises have significantly increased their willingness to purchase raw coal and strengthen restocking efforts, providing effective support to futures prices. On the demand side, steel mills are currently enjoying reasonable profitability, with pig iron output remaining high and sustaining strong inherent demand for upstream raw materials. Meanwhile, coking enterprises are operating at relatively favorable profit margins, further stimulating demand for coking coal. The alignment of supply and demand dynamics has created a clear rationale for the near-term strength in coking coal futures. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the pace of capacity release after the end of Safety Production Month and the potential impact of weakening imported coal prices on the domestic supply landscape.

2. Lithium carbonate futures continue to plunge, breaking through multiple key price levels—has the price peaked?

Sinopec Futures stated that the inventory data released on June 4 showed that the latest weekly inventory figures from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals were essentially flat, ending the full-month inventory drawdown observed throughout May. Given the环比 decline in production, signs of weakening apparent consumption have emerged. Additionally, the long-discussed issue of warehouse receipts has begun to surface. May was a turning point for the lithium carbonate market; we had repeatedly emphasized that the core reason short sellers were previously unable to participate significantly was the insufficient available tradable inventory under the SMM口径. Mainstream capital was well aware of this, and within just one month quietly increased the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts from 38,000 to a record-high 56,000—a move that became the decisive factor in breaking through the longs’ psychological resistance. The increase in warehouse receipts exceeded 30%. Meanwhile, open interest in the lithium carbonate market declined by nearly 30%, further undermining market fundamentals and contributing to the price collapse. Fundamentally, product prices in niche markets are determined by the ratio of liquidity to available deliverable supply; the quiet withdrawal of capital combined with the rapid accumulation of deliverable warehouse receipts has been the primary cause of market pressure. In the short term, we are monitoring the spot market’s rebound strength around RMB 158,000 per ton. However, over the medium term, lithium carbonate prices in the second half of the year may remain suppressed below RMB 150,000 per ton; our primary recommendation for hedgers is to effectively manage inventory levels.

1. Pending, Malaysia May 1-31 MPOA palm oil production estimate;

2. Pending: FAO Food Price Index for May globally;

3. Pending, 45 Chinese ports' iron ore inventories as of June 4;

4. TBA, Aramco announces its official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month;

5. 20:30, U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment for May.