Wintermute Predicts a Faster End to the Current Bear Market, Recovery Likely in H2 2026

ChainCatcher News: Wintermute posted on X, stating clearly that we are already in a bear market, which has actually been ongoing for some time—especially evident from altcoin performance, the extreme concentration of rebounds, and market sentiment on X. However, the difference with this bear market is that it is not triggered by structural collapses like FTX, Luna, or 3AC, but rather a relatively natural deleveraging process driven by macroeconomic conditions and cyclical trends, with the core drivers being changes in positions, risk appetite, and market narratives. This is a crucial point. As there are no bankruptcies or systemic contagion, this cycle may end faster than previous bear markets. The infrastructure is more robust, stablecoin adoption is still growing, and institutional interest has not disappeared—it is merely temporarily on hold. Once the environment improves, attention and capital could quickly return—most likely in the second half of 2026, when macroeconomic uncertainty decreases and the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clearer. In the short term, after the liquidations, positions have clearly become lighter, but market confidence remains weak. After two months of consolidation, we are now back in a price discovery phase. It is still too early to talk about any meaningful upward trend, but if one emerges, its pattern may be clearer than the reversals seen in previous bear markets—because this time, the crypto ecosystem has not suffered structural damage.