Wintermute: Institutional Buying Retreats, Crypto Market Diverges from Stock Market

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The crypto market showed weakness on May 25 as BTC dropped to $76,600 (a 1.5% weekly loss) and ETH fell to $2,140 (a 1.7% weekly loss). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 reached a record high, underscoring the ongoing divergence between crypto and stock markets. BTC spot ETFs recorded $1.26 billion in outflows for the week and over $2 billion over two weeks, signaling a retreat in institutional buying that had previously pushed BTC from $70,000 to $80,000. The ETH/BTC ratio declined to a 10-month low, down 35% from its August peak. A BTC market update indicates key support between $75,000 and $76,000; a break below could open the path to $70,000–$72,000.

Wintermute posted that as of May 25, BTC was trading at approximately $76,600 (down 1.5% for the week), ETH at around $2,140 (down 1.7% for the week), while the U.S. stock market’s S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high during the same period, indicating a clear divergence between crypto and equity markets. BTC spot ETFs saw another weekly outflow of approximately $1.26 billion, bringing the two-week cumulative outflow to over $2 billion; institutional buying that previously supported BTC’s rise from $70,000 to $80,000 has clearly subsided. The ETH/BTC ratio hit a 10-month low, down 35% from its August high. On the macro front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, while the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.8%. NVIDIA’s Q1 revenue grew 85% year-over-year, and its Q2 guidance stood at $91 billion, yet the stock showed almost no reaction after hours, suggesting AI-related trading is already fully priced in. Wintermute noted that BTC’s key support currently lies between $75,000 and $76,000; if held, BTC could retest $80,000. A break below this level would quickly open the path to $70,000–$72,000. The near-term direction hinges on whether institutional capital returns to the market.

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