The crypto market maker Wintermute posted on social media that as the Middle East situation enters its third week of escalation, Brent crude oil has risen 26% this week, and markets have now scaled back expectations for 2026 rate cuts to just one. Against this backdrop, the crypto market has outperformed all major asset classes except crude oil: BTC rose this week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all declined. In digital assets, BTC rebounded approximately 10% from its Monday low, posting seven consecutive daily bullish candles and reclaiming the $31,000 level; ETH followed suit and held above $2,000. The Coinbase BTC premium indicator has reset, with the structural discount pressure that persisted for months now subsiding. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first five consecutive days of net inflows in 2026, totaling $767 million, including $251 million on Monday alone, led by IBIT; Ethereum ETFs saw four consecutive days of net inflows of approximately $160 million. Strategy added another 1,360 BTC; Bitmine announced the purchase of ETH for $128 million, with the Ethereum Foundation directly selling 5,000 ETH to it via OTC. The BTC implied volatility index (DVOL) compressed from 61 to 51, and BTC’s correlation with equities has also significantly weakened. On the macro front, core PCE inflation reached an annualized 3.1%, and nonfarm payrolls...
Wintermute: Crypto Market Outperforms Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Stagflation Risks
TechFlowShare
Summary
Market trends showed crypto outperforming major assets as Brent crude rose 26% amid Middle East tensions and stagflation fears. BTC rebounded 10% from Monday’s lows, reclaiming $31,000, while ETH surpassed $2,000. The Coinbase BTC premium indicator reset after months of downward pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $767 million net inflow over five days in 2026, led by IBIT with $251 million. Ethereum ETFs added $160 million over four days. Strategy increased its holdings by 1,360 BTC, Bitmine purchased $128 million in ETH, and the Ethereum Foundation sold 5,000 ETH via OTC. Key support and resistance levels appear to be shifting in favor of crypto.
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