Wintermute: BTC Rally Driven by Leverage; Open Interest Surges as Spot Volume Drops to 2-Year Low

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Wintermute’s latest report shows Bitcoin’s rise above $80,000 was driven by leveraged flows, not spot demand. Open interest surged by $10 billion in a month, while trading volume fell to a two-year low. ETFs received $623 million in inflows, but exchange BTC reserves dropped to a seven-year low. The RSI is overbought, raising concerns of a pullback if spot buyers fail to enter. The rally is more closely tied to U.S. stock market strength and leveraged flows than to crypto-specific momentum. Upcoming CPI data and Fed policy will test Bitcoin’s $80,000 support level.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000, briefly reaching approximately $83,000, and regained the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally has been clearly driven more by leveraged funds than by spot buying demand.

The report indicates that over the past month, the open interest in Bitcoin futures increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low—a classic sign of a short squeeze. Although ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $623 million and exchange BTC reserves fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory; if spot market funding fails to sustain momentum after the squeeze ends, BTC prices may face a rapid correction.

Wintermute also noted that the current rally in the crypto market is primarily driven by the strength of U.S. equities and leverage, rather than independent bull market fundamentals. Subsequent U.S. CPI data and shifts in Fed policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can sustainably hold above $80,000.

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