ChainCatcher report: In its latest market update, Wintermute noted that the market saw a significant rebound last week, primarily driven by two factors: first, the May CPI data came in as expected (4.2% year-over-year), without the heightened inflationary concerns the market had feared; second, the resolution of the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in oil prices. Wintermute believes that since October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced three pullbacks exceeding 20%, and the current decline from $83,000 to $60,000 constitutes a “bear market false breakout.” Currently, there has been no structural reversal in capital inflows into ETFs, stablecoins, and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT); liquidity remains the key factor constraining the sustainability of the rebound. The report indicates that BTC’s risk-reward profile near $60,000 is attractive, but the bottom has not yet been confirmed, and a further decline to the $50,000 range remains possible.
Wintermute: BTC Rebounds Amid CPI Data and Iran Conflict, But Liquidity Remains a Concern
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Summary
Liquidity remains a key constraint as Bitcoin rebounds near $60,000, according to Wintermute’s latest report. The firm describes the recent decline from $83,000 as a "bear market false breakout," with the Fear & Greed Index still leaning heavily toward fear. Despite falling oil prices and stable CPI data, no structural reversal in ETF or DAT inflows has occurred. Wintermute views BTC as having an attractive risk-reward profile, though a test of $50,000 remains possible; liquidity challenges could delay a full recovery.
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