BlockBeats report: On May 26, Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to eased tensions in Iran, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.50%, and U.S. equities rising for the eighth consecutive week to record highs, easing energy-driven inflationary pressures. However, consumer concerns remain unrelieved, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, while the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the May manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, and input costs reached their highest level since 2022, signaling a resurgence in goods inflation. The Fed’s April meeting minutes also signaled that “if inflation remains stubborn, further policy tightening may be warranted,” and markets have not yet fully priced in this more hawkish outlook.
In the tech sector, NVIDIA delivered a "explosive" earnings report: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with data center revenue growing 92%. The company also announced an $80 billion share repurchase program and a 25% increase in its dividend. More critically, its Q2 guidance implicitly assumes zero revenue from Chinese data centers, implying even stronger underlying AI demand. Yet the market responded with unusual indifference—after-hours stock price barely moved—indicating that AI-related trading has entered a "perfectly priced" phase, where mere upside surprises no longer drive momentum. This serves as a significant warning for risk assets, including crypto markets: if AI momentum weakens, sluggish consumer spending, persistent inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve could once again dominate market narratives.
Compared to the strength of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market has clearly lagged behind. BTC is trading around $76,000, while ETH has dropped to $2,140—neither has followed the rally in risk assets. Over the past two weeks, cumulative outflows from BTC spot ETFs have exceeded $2 billion, signaling a clear cooling of institutional capital, with marginal risk appetite shifting back toward AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has continued to weaken, hitting a 10-month low. Among a few assets defying the trend, HYPE stands out, recording a single-day ETF inflow of $25.5 million and showing signs of sustained accumulation by large institutional wallets. The current market structure has not fully deteriorated—long-term holders are still accumulating, and exchange reserves remain low—but the short-term price-moving capital flows have turned negative. BTC’s key support level currently lies between $75,000 and $76,000; if breached, the market could quickly retest the $70,000–$72,000 range. If supported, however, BTC still has potential to rechallenge $80,000.