BlockBeats report: On May 12, Wintermute released its weekly market summary, noting that U.S. equities continued their strong performance, marking a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 up 2.3%, both reaching new all-time highs, as small-cap stocks and tech giants advanced in tandem. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, reflecting strong labor market resilience. Despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, markets treated the situation as noise, with the war risk premium significantly declining. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, as Trump directly rejected Iran’s demands regarding sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief. This week’s CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, while market attention is focused on the Fed’s June FOMC dot plot amid the transition from Powell’s tenure to Waugh’s leadership.
In the cryptocurrency asset space, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, peaking around $83,000 and rising above its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in a single month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—characteristic of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional support remains strong, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and exchange reserves at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, short-term risks are elevated—the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if the short squeeze ends without spot demand picking up, Bitcoin’s price could quickly reverse. Altcoins have shifted toward niche narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors leading performance. Overall, the crypto market must quickly validate whether this rebound marks a genuine bull market beginning: current momentum is primarily fueled by stock market correlation and leverage. If rising CPI or uncertainty from a Fed leadership change emerges, Bitcoin’s ability to independently hold above $80,000 will serve as the key confirmation signal.