Willy Woo: Market Prices in 4M Lost BTC Quantum Risk; BTC Outlook Remains Uncertain

ChainCatcher reports that renowned analyst Willy Woo stated that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken: BTC’s relative valuation should have been higher, but failed to materialize, primarily due to growing market awareness of quantum computing risks, prompting investors to price in potential threats ahead of time. Bitcoin will likely be patched in the future with quantum-resistant signatures, but this cannot resolve the issue of approximately 4 million “lost” BTC—early coins with lost private keys that may be compromised by quantum computers—re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates a 75% probability that these lost bitcoins will not be frozen via a protocol hard fork, meaning the market must preemptively account for 4 million units of selling pressure. Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, total corporate and ETF accumulation has reached only 2.8 million BTC; these 4 million lost coins are equivalent to eight years of corporate accumulation and would cause significant supply dilution. Until “Q-Day”—the anticipated realization of quantum computing threats, expected in 5 to 15 years—BTC’s price will continue to be weighed down by this uncertainty.