Foreign media report that the so-called "altseason" commonly mentioned in the market does not refer to a broad rally in altcoins, but rather to most major altcoins consistently outperforming Bitcoin over a period of time. As of mid-2026, this condition has yet to be confirmed, with the market still largely dominated by Bitcoin.
How to identify altcoin season
The most common tool used to measure this phase is the Altcoin Season Index. This metric counts how many of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days and assigns a score between 0 and 100.
- Above 75: Generally considered a altcoin season
- Below 25: Typically considered a Bitcoin season
- Approximately 43: Indicates that the market remains in a neutral range.
The article notes that the index stood at around 43 in mid-2026, a significant rebound from the June low of 11 to 12, but still falls short of confirming a altseason. This indicates that some altcoins have recovered from their lows, but have not yet demonstrated broad, sustained relative strength.
Bitcoin's market dominance remains high.
In addition to the Altcoin Season Index, the market also monitors Bitcoin’s dominance, which is the percentage of Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market. An increase in dominance typically indicates that capital continues to concentrate in Bitcoin, while a decline suggests capital is beginning to spread toward altcoins.
The article states that by mid-2026, Bitcoin's dominance will remain in the middle to lower end of the 50% range. Analysts typically view a drop below 55% as a clearer signal of rotation. Above this level, altcoins, even if they rise, often struggle to sustain outperformance.
This is why the market cannot be judged solely by price movements. If Bitcoin rises faster and capital continues to flow into it, the market will find it difficult to enter a typical altcoin season.
Why hasn't 2026 arrived yet?
The article argues that altcoin seasons typically occur after Bitcoin experiences a significant rally and enters a sideways consolidation, prompting capital to gradually shift from large-cap to mid- and small-cap tokens. However, the conditions for 2026 are not in place, as Bitcoin remains significantly below its historical highs, leaving insufficient profit space for capital to spill over.
Additionally, Bitcoin's dominance remains high, indicating that capital continues to favor assets with greater liquidity and easier institutional allocation. The article also mentions the "wall of money" effect brought by ETFs, whereby some institutional funds entering Bitcoin through regulated products have not flowed into altcoin markets as they traditionally did.
The article also notes that the altcoin season index is a lagging indicator. By the time the score rises above 75, the market rally may already be well underway; switching to altcoins too early, before the rotation has fully formed, could also lead to higher volatility.