Weekly Market Insights: Week 1 of April, Market Anticipates TACO

• Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and broad-based corrections in traditional stock markets, Bitcoin recorded a slight decline last week. The S&P 500 has fallen 7.41% so far this month, potentially marking its worst monthly performance since September 2022. Although short-term expectations for the Middle East conflict remain bleak, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, increasing the burden on financial markets and government debt, investors anticipate that President Trump will seek to exit the Middle East conflict as soon as possible.

• Although President Trump announced a pause on military action against Iranian power plants until April 6, tensions in the region have not eased over the past week. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which carries 12% of global trade. Iranian officials have rejected negotiations with the United States, claiming they are a cover for ground attacks, and have drafted the "Hormuz Act" to establish a formal toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets estimate a 70% chance of U.S. ground forces being deployed by the end of April.
• Driven by long-term geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations, the market is currently pricing in a 25% probability of rate hikes by 2026, with only a 1.3% probability of rate cuts.

Upcoming economic calendar includes:

• March 31 (Tuesday) at 10:00 PM: U.S. February JOLTS Job Openings
• April 1 (Wednesday) at 8:30 PM: U.S. February Retail Sales
• April 1 (Wednesday), 10:00 PM: U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 8:30 PM, Friday, April 3: U.S. March Employment Report

• According to reports, the CLARITY Act has compromised on stablecoin yields, restricting platforms from offering yields “directly or indirectly” or providing anything “economically or functionally equivalent” to stablecoin interest, but permitting rewards based on “activity.”
• Tether has signed with KPMG, one of the Big Four accounting firms, to complete its first comprehensive audit.
• Securitize has signed a memorandum of understanding with the New York Stock Exchange to become the first qualified transfer agent to mint blockchain-native securities on a tokenized securities platform, advancing on-chain settlement and market infrastructure.
• Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) has received formal listing approval from the New York Stock Exchange, signaling its upcoming launch and expanding institutional access to BTC through traditional wealth channels.
• Australia's central bank says stablecoins and bank deposit tokens can coexist as part of its $17 billion national tokenization initiative.
• BitGo has launched event-linked derivatives on its OTC platform for institutions to access prediction markets.
• The social commerce platform Whop has launched Whop Treasury, allowing users to earn 6% interest automatically on their platform balances, powered by Aave, Plasma, and Moonpay.
• The Federal Housing Finance Agency has ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare proposals allowing cryptocurrency to be used as reserve assets in single-family mortgage risk assessments.

Layer 1 and Layer 2

• Bitpanda has launched Vision Chain to tokenize the EU market, enabling banks and fintech companies to comply with the MiCA/MiFID II framework by using euro-backed stablecoins for fees in issuance and settlement.
• Canton Network announces Visa as its new super validator to drive privacy-preserving blockchain payment and stablecoin infrastructure for banks and financial institutions.
• ZKsync partners with BitGo to deliver a production-grade solution for tokenized deposits, combining institutional custody, wallets, and bank-oriented private compliant settlement anchored to Ethereum.
• Midnight has partnered with Monument Bank to enable the UK’s first regulated bank to tokenize retail customer deposits on its privacy-enhanced blockchain, with an initial target of issuing £250 million in interest-bearing, pound-backed tokens protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, with transaction data masked.

DApps

• After acquiring IDEX, Katana launched Katana Perps, a native perpetuals decentralized exchange, whose reward framework is built on structural and sustainable yields from Vault Bridge USDC, rather than relying on token inflation.
• Silo Finance has launched Silo v3, introducing isolated lending markets with protocol-level solvency guarantees. When liquidity is sufficient, positions are liquidated via DEX; in low-liquidity environments, collateral and fees are directly transferred to lenders through collateral-debt swaps.
• Derive has activated on-chain lending, allowing users to deposit collateral directly on the platform and borrow USDC at low interest rates.
• MoonPay has open-sourced the Open Wallet Standard (OWS), a Rust-based, locally-first protocol for AI agents that provides an encrypted vault, cross-chain unified signing, and zero private key exposure.
• Ondo Finance, in collaboration with Franklin Templeton, is bringing tokenized versions of its investment products on-chain via Ondo Global Markets for 24/7 wallet-based access.
• Particle Network has enhanced its universal accounts with full EIP-7702 support, enabling any application to be chain-agnostic and delivering seamless EOA connectivity, gas abstraction, and cross-chain deposits.
• Pudgy Penguins has partnered with KAST to launch the Pengu Card, available in over 170 countries worldwide, with three tiers offering up to 12% rewards and up to 7% yield.
• Aevo has launched PERPS+, a one-click structured product that bundles perpetual contracts with options, offering yield enhancement while simplifying directional trading and eliminating the complexity of options.
• Birch Hill has launched an on-chain credit facility backed by Groma’s tokenized multi-family REIT, enabling borrowers to collateralize real estate equity and borrow USDC via Yearn-curated Morpho markets on the Base network.

Governance and the Upcoming Alpha

• Balancer has announced the closure of Balancer Labs, keeping the protocol under the DAO framework, proposing to redirect 100% of fees to the DAO, halting all BAL token emissions (with a $500,000 compensation to veBAL), and initiating a $3.6 million buyback program.
• Venice announces that, starting May 1, it will phase out a 50% reduction in VVV minting (May: 6 million → 5 million; June: 5 million → 4 million; July: 4 million → 3 million), moving toward a deflationary token with native yield through increased token burns driven by revenue.
• Lido has proposed authorizing the Growth Committee to use up to 10,000 stETH from the DAO treasury to purchase LDO.
• Aave has published an ARFC on the "Aave Will Win" framework, directing 100% of product revenue to the Aave DAO treasury, separating the V4 activation from brand and IP protection initiatives, and providing a more detailed budget allocation compared to Temp-Check.

Token unlock

• The EIGEN token will unlock on April 1, accounting for 5.71% of the supply.
• EDGE tokens will unlock on April 2, accounting for 50.2% of the supply.
• The ZAMA token will unlock on April 2, accounting for 5.21% of the supply.
• The LINEA token will unlock on April 10, accounting for 4.31% of the supply.
• The BABY token will unlock on April 10, accounting for 23.5% of the supply.
• The DBR token will unlock on April 17, accounting for 12.5% of the supply.
• The KAT token will unlock on April 18, accounting for 8.08% of the supply.
• The ZRO token will unlock on April 20, accounting for 9.78% of the supply.
• The KAITO token unlock will occur on April 20, accounting for 7.29% of the supply.

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