Warren Buffett on Market Timing, Apple, and Nuclear Risks in CNBC Interview

Author: Curry, Shenchao TechFlow

Yesterday, Buffett accepted an interview with U.S. CNBC.

This is the first time he has sat down for such a long conversation since stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1 of this year. At 95, having led the company for six decades and handed over to Greg Abel, he could easily have chosen not to speak at all.

But he talked about Apple, the Federal Reserve, Bill Gates and Epstein, Iran’s nuclear weapons, and also announced that his charity lunch, paused for four years, is set to resume.

There's a lot of information—let's go through it one thing at a time.

Buffett says he still goes to the office every day.

Before the market opens each day, he calls Mark Millard, Head of Financial Assets at Berkshire, to discuss market trends and plan trades. Millard’s office is about six meters away, and after the call, he goes over to execute them. When asked if he had made any new moves recently, Buffett said yes—he made a tiny purchase—but did not reveal what he bought.

He also drew a line: he would not make any investment that Abel did not agree with, and Abel receives a daily summary of investment updates.

This arrangement sounds like it means "the final decision rests with the new CEO," but interpreted differently, it also means the 95-year-old predecessor is present every day, involved every day, trading every day, while the successor works just six meters away.

In the interview, Buffett praised Abel repeatedly, saying that Abel does in one day more work than Buffett did in an entire week at his peak, and that he would rather entrust his money to Abel than to any top investment advisor in the United States.

Officially, he has stepped down. But this “stepping down” is more like transitioning from CEO to someone sitting beside the role.

In this interview, Buffett admitted that Berkshire sold its Apple shares too early.

I sold it too soon. But I bought it even sooner, so.

It means he sold too early, but bought even earlier, so he still made a profit. According to him, Berkshire’s investment in Apple generated pre-tax profits of over $100 billion.

The timeline is as follows: Berkshire began buying Apple around 2016, and its stake grew to a peak of over $170 billion, becoming Berkshire's largest single holding ever.

Between 2023 and 2024, Berkshire reduced its position in Apple by approximately two-thirds. As of the end of last year, according to SEC filings, Berkshire held about 22.79 million shares of Apple, with a market value of approximately $62 billion, still accounting for 22.6% of its entire portfolio and remaining its largest holding.

Buffett said that Apple is better than any company wholly owned by Berkshire.

BNSF, the railroad company under Berkshire Hathaway, has a market capitalization higher than Apple’s stake, yet Apple still ranks first on the holdings list. He also praised Apple’s CEO Cook as a "fantastic manager," saying Cook somehow manages to get along with everyone in the world.

But when asked if he would re-enter the position, Buffett gave a qualified answer: It’s not impossible—if Apple’s price drops to a certain level, Berkshire would buy in large amounts. But not now, "not in this market".

Apple has fallen more than 14% from its peak this year, but according to Buffett, it hasn't yet reached a price he's willing to buy at.

U.S. stocks haven't looked great this year. As of the day of the interview, the Dow Jones had fallen about 5% year-to-date, the S&P 500 had dropped around 6%, and the Nasdaq had declined approximately 9%. Apple itself had retreated more than 14% from its year-to-date high.

Buffett's response to this was: Nothing to get excited about.

He said that since taking over Berkshire, the company's stock has declined by more than 50% at least three times. Compared to those, the current drop is insignificant.

He also hasn't shown any intention to make a major move. For him, the current market is still far from those historical moments that created tremendous opportunities.

In just a few words, it’s saying not to panic, but also not to expect me to buy the dip right now.

When asked whether the Fed is currently more concerned about inflation or employment, Buffett didn’t take a side, but made a broader statement: he wishes the Fed’s inflation target were zero.

His logic is that once you accept a 2% inflation rate, the long-term compounding effect becomes astonishing. Moreover, for ordinary people, if you earn 2% interest on your savings but must pay taxes on that 2%, it means your purchasing power is effectively declining.

Buffett also said that, more than employment data, he is concerned about the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency and the stability of the banking system.

He praised Federal Reserve Chair Powell for his decisive actions in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic, saying that if action had been delayed by just two or three weeks, it would have been a disaster: “Once the dominoes start falling, they fall faster than anyone realizes.” In Buffett’s view, Powell and Paul Volcker, who aggressively raised interest rates in the 1980s to tame inflation, are the two most respected figures in the history of the Federal Reserve.

However, he has also criticized the Federal Reserve. In his view, the 2% inflation target is a mistake, as it essentially tells everyone that saving money is worse than spending it.

What changed Buffett's mind was the death of one person.

Cecil Williams, founder of the Glide Foundation, passed away in 2024. Glide is a San Francisco-based charity that supports the homeless; Warren Buffett’s former wife, Susan, volunteered there for many years. Beginning in 2000, Buffett annually auctioned off a lunch with himself, donating all proceeds to Glide. The event ran for 22 years, and after the final one in 2022, Buffett announced he would no longer hold it.

Image: The person in the middle is Cecil Williams

But Cecil’s death changed his mind. Buffett said that Cecil believed Glide should not perish.

This new lunch has a different format.

Buffett will no longer attend alone; his companion will be NBA four-time champion Stephen Curry and his wife Ayesha Curry. The auction begins on eBay on May 7 with a starting bid of $50,000. The winner may bring up to seven guests to have lunch with three people in Omaha on June 24. Half of the proceeds will be donated to Glide, and the other half to the Eat. Learn. Play. Foundation, founded by the Currys, a nonprofit organization supporting Oakland youth.

The last auction related to the crypto space was in 2019, when Binance founder Sun Guangyuan spent $4.57 million. After that, Buffett donated the Bitcoin he received from Sun.

This is the first time Buffett has publicly commented on Bill Gates since stepping down.

He said that since the documents related to Epstein were made public, he has not spoken to Gates again. His exact words were: "I don't want to be in a position where I know things ... to be called as a witness." He didn't want to know too much and didn't want to be summoned as a witness.

Buffett and Gates have maintained a relationship for decades. In 2010, they co-founded The Giving Pledge, urging the world’s wealthiest individuals to commit the majority of their wealth to philanthropy. Since 2006, Buffett has donated over $43 billion to the Gates Foundation.

Gates's association with Epstein began in 2011, three years after Epstein pleaded guilty to sex crimes in Florida in 2008. Since late last year, the U.S. Department of Justice and Congress have released a large volume of related documents, exposing emails and photographs between Gates and Epstein.

According to prior reports from The Wall Street Journal, Gates apologized to Gates Foundation employees in February, acknowledging his association with Epstein and admitting to an extramarital affair. Gates has accepted an invitation from the U.S. House Oversight Committee to testify on this matter, though the date has not yet been set.

When asked if he was still good friends with Gates, Buffett’s tone was restrained. He mentioned their past collaboration in founding the Giving Pledge, but then added:

I think it’s best to say nothing until things are clear.

At the end of the interview, the conversation turned to Iran.

Buffett says there are now nine countries in the world with nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, there were only two—the United States and the Soviet Union—and everyone was already extremely tense. But at least back then, the decision-makers on both sides were relatively rational. Now, the situation is completely different.

He specifically mentioned Iran and North Korea. He said the most dangerous scenario is when the person in control of the nuclear button is nearing death or facing immense humiliation. In such a situation, no one can predict what decision a person might make.

When asked how he would advise the U.S. president on handling Iran’s uranium enrichment, Buffett did not offer a specific recommendation, but instead made a remark that sounded almost fatalistic: “Within the next hundred years, perhaps two hundred, nuclear weapons will be used.” He didn’t know how it would happen, but he believed it was a matter of probability—the more countries that possess nuclear weapons, the higher the likelihood.

Regarding whether Iran should possess nuclear weapons, he simply said: If Iran had a nuclear bomb, things would be harder than if it didn't.

A 95-year-old who witnessed the end of World War II, the entire Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the collapse of the Soviet Union... their final assessment in the interview is profoundly thought-provoking.

This interview lasted about an hour and covered everything we could discuss.

But the most notable detail for the author throughout the entire process is that Buffett, at 95 years old and retired for three months, did not say a single word to the camera about "reflecting" or "summarizing his life."

All talk is focused on looking forward.

Should you buy Apple, how should the Fed set its targets, how will the situation in Iran develop, how should the new charity lunch be handled... The host across from him, Becky Quick, gave him many opportunities to reflect, but he never took them.

You rarely see someone who has already given up power showing more interest in the future than in the past.

Even if the investing legend is older, he’s still a legend. Back then, he voted with money; now, he votes with judgment.