BlockBeats news, on March 2, as the Middle East conflict pushed up oil prices and fueled inflation concerns, money markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone reduced bets on interest rate cuts.
Based on swaps tied to policy meeting dates, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in 2026 has fallen from nearly 50% last week to 20%. Traders no longer expect the Bank of England to cut rates three times this year and have reduced the likelihood of a March cut from over 80% to 60%. They have also halved the probability of the European Central Bank cutting rates this year, pricing in only a 5-basis-point cut.