Huo Xing Finance reports that on July 10, amid growing concerns over insider trading in prediction markets, several Wall Street investment banks are tightening employees’ trading permissions on prediction market platforms. According to the report, Goldman Sachs has prohibited employees from trading contracts related to the bank itself, financial markets, macroeconomics, elections, and geopolitics; Morgan Stanley has established a policy governing employee trading on prediction markets; and Bank of America is implementing new trading restrictions for employees. Previously, the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclosed that a Google software engineer had profited approximately $1.2 million on Polymarket by using non-public information obtained during work, further intensifying market concerns over insider trading. Meanwhile, Polymarket is seeking to expand its U.S. operations. Its affiliated company, Coming Home GBA LLC, has applied to the National Futures Association (NFA) to become a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), with plans to offer margin-enabled prediction trading services to U.S. users in the future—though this business still requires CFTC approval. A related entity of competitor Kalshi obtained the necessary qualifications in March of this year. Data shows that Polymarket recorded a single-day trading volume of $713 million on June 20; Kalshi’s monthly trading volume in June reached nearly $9.4 billion, driven by the 2026 World Cup, as trading activity in prediction markets continues to surge.
Wall Street banks restrict employee predictive market trading amid insider trading concerns
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Summary
Wall Street banks are restricting employee trading on prediction markets to prevent insider trading. Goldman Sachs has banned trading in contracts linked to the firm, markets, and geopolitics. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are also implementing new rules. Polymarket recorded $713 million in trading volume on June 20, while Kalshi reached nearly $9.4 billion in June. Polymarket is seeking an FCM license from the CFTC.
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