The Google I/O 2026 event kicked off at the outdoor amphitheater along California’s coastline, as Google’s stock entered today’s trading session with its most optimistic outlook in years. Alphabet’s shares hit an all-time high on Monday, rising approximately 140% over the past year. Currently, all 63 analysts tracked by S&P Global have issued a “Strong Buy” rating on Google’s stock, with an average price target of $427.89. The price target range spans from a low of $334.22 to a high of $515, reflecting significant divergence on Wall Street regarding the future growth rate of Alphabet’s AI revenue.
With the start of the 2026 I/O conference, Google's stock is showing strong upward momentum.
A series of upward target price revisions have emerged. Loop Capital raised its target price from $355 to $490, maintaining a “Buy” rating. Oppenheimer also maintained its “Outperform” rating and increased its target price from $425 to $445. Arete Research raised its target price from $405 to $425. Justin Post at Bank of America reiterated a “Buy” rating with a $430 target price, noting that announcements at Google I/O regarding AI subscriptions and agent features could further boost investor confidence. Citibank’s target price is $447, also maintaining a “Buy” rating.
The most aggressive move recently came from Lloyd Womble of Mizuho Securities, who raised Alphabet’s target price to $460 and directly tied it to his views on the growth trajectory of Google Cloud. Womble said:
His model forecasts that Google Cloud's revenue growth rates will be 70% in 2026 and 59% in 2027, significantly exceeding Wall Street’s previous estimates of 58% and 47%. He also wrote that Alphabet has transformed from an “AI loser to an AI winner,” deserving a premium rating and a target price set at 30 times its 2027 GAAP earnings per share estimate, above the company’s historical range over the past three years. As of the time of writing, 57 out of 63 analysts have issued a “Buy” rating, 6 have issued a “Hold” rating, and none have issued a “Sell” rating. Such a high degree of consensus is rare for a company with a $4.8 trillion market capitalization.
What does the Gemini 4 target price for Alphabet stock mean?
One of the most pressing questions investors had this morning was whether Google would release Gemini 4 today or merely an update to version 3.5. Citibank noted that, based on Google’s roughly three- to four-month release cycle since launching Gemini 3.1 Pro in February, a full generational leap is possible—but not the most likely scenario. Mizuho Bank also published a piece stating that the release of Gemini 4 would position Google “back at the forefront,” and that most of Wall Street believes this is critical for Google’s stock analyst ratings, even as cloud business data continues to dominate headlines.
Lothoney, founding managing partner of Plexo Capital and founder of Anthropic, an early investor in Alphabet, shared the following perspective at this year's Google I/O conference on why the full-stack development model gives Google a structural advantage over its competitors:
Alphabet stock rating upgraded: Cloud business data continues to drive analysts in raising target prices
Google Cloud's first-quarter revenue reached $20 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase, significantly outpacing Azure (approximately 30%) and AWS (28%). Backlog orders surged to $462 billion, nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter; revenue from AI products grew by approximately 800% year over year. These figures have prompted numerous institutions to raise their target prices for Google stock, and it is these factors that have led many research teams this week to frame their Alphabet stock I/O 2026 forecasts not as cautious outlooks, but as celebrations of victory.
Toney also called TPU one of the most undervalued aspects of Alphabet’s investment philosophy, while Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, analyzed the opportunities in the chip industry from a broader perspective. Munster said:
TPU sales status and questions still needing answers today
In its first-quarter earnings report, Google disclosed that it will begin delivering custom TPU chips to external customers in the second half of 2026 and scale up deliveries in 2027. Currently, most Wall Street analysts have not fully factored this revenue stream into their ratings of Google stock, which is one reason why some more aggressive price targets reach as high as $490 and $515. According to Munster’s estimates, the overall AI chip market is approximately $500 billion annually, meaning that even a small share of this market could significantly impact Alphabet’s performance.
What Wall Street most wants to know today, especially ahead of Google’s I/O conference happening in the next few hours, is how Google will monetize AI modes in search. Mizuho Securities notes that 93% of AI mode searches ultimately result in no user clicks to external links, and natural click-through rates for AI overview queries have also dropped by approximately 15%. This is at the heart of today’s debate over Google’s stock price targets: Google Cloud and TPUs (Tensor Processing Units) have boosted bullish sentiment, while the challenge of monetizing AI search through advertising keeps bears from fully abandoning their positions. The Google I/O 2026 keynote, which began this morning, offers the first public opportunity to address this question.