VanEck Research Head: BTC Derivatives Protective Demand Reaches 99th Percentile, Signaling Reverse Long Opportunity

Matthew Sigel, Head of Research at VanEck, posted an analysis on X noting that protective demand in the current Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile—a level typically viewed as a contrarian bullish signal during periods of extreme risk aversion—and concluded that the market is currently well-suited for establishing long positions. Matthew Sigel also manages the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which has risen 27% since its inception, compared to a 33% decline in Bitcoin during the same period, achieving lower volatility through diversified allocation and focus on profitable sectors. However, he warned that if massive capital expenditures by companies in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector fail to generate corresponding returns, they could exert substantial pressure on the market—particularly given the heavy weighting of S&P 500 components. Note: A percentile is a statistical measure indicating relative position; the 99th percentile represents an extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the median.