VanEck's latest report indicates that Bitcoin mining facilities transitioning to AI infrastructure face a nearly $50 billion funding gap, with investor focus shifting from "announcements" to "delivery capability," as only about one-quarter of AI and high-performance computing capacity has been delivered so far.
(Prior context: Bitcoin mining companies also benefit from AI! Bernstein sees power advantages as key to building computing centers, upgrades stock rating)
(Background supplement: Opinion: If the U.S. Becomes a Hub for Bitcoin Mining and AI, Ultra-High-Voltage Transformers Will Become a New Trump-Themed Stock)
U.S. asset management firm VanEck released a new report on Wednesday, stating that Bitcoin mining companies, which have spent the past two years repositioning themselves as AI infrastructure providers, are now entering a more challenging phase of their transformation, where they must prove they can truly deliver.
VanEck investment analyst Griffin MacMaster and head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel stated in their report that the market is cooling down from the enthusiasm around AI contract signings and shifting focus to more fundamental issues: whether mines can secure funding, build, and operate the massive data centers required to serve AI clients.
The institution estimates that, if current development plans proceed, the mining industry will face a short-term funding gap of approximately $50 billion, with long-term capital needs reaching as high as $221 billion.
Deliver only a quarter; "execution replaces signing" becomes the new premium
VanEck notes that only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity leased by mining facilities to customers has been actually delivered. The report emphasizes that "signing contracts is no longer a premium—execution is," and companies that miss construction milestones may face structural downgrades from investors.
This observation stems from a dramatic shift in the Bitcoin mining industry. After the 2024 halving, mining profits shrank, prompting many operators to repurpose their power infrastructure to support AI computing workloads, betting that tech companies' power and data center spending will far exceed that of Bitcoin mining rigs.
Core Scientific (CORZ) has signed a multi-hundred-million-dollar hosting agreement with AI startup CoreWeave, successfully transitioning from a Bitcoin mining operation to an AI infrastructure provider. TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have all announced leasing their power and data center capacity to AI and high-performance computing clients. Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are pursuing a hybrid strategy, maintaining their Bitcoin mining operations while exploring AI opportunities.
Bitcoin fell 24%, but mining stocks rose nearly double.
So far this year, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 24% since January, and cryptocurrencies have continued to weaken as capital flows shift toward the AI sector. However, Bitcoin mining stocks have generally risen, with RIOT up nearly 94% this year and CIFR up 62%, while many peers have shown similar gains.
A new narrative has driven the cryptocurrency sector's largest price movement over the past year, with investors increasingly valuing these companies based on their AI potential rather than their mining operations.
But VanEck believes valuation remains complex, as investors are trying to price a company caught between two worlds: a declining mining operation and an AI business that has yet to generate meaningful cash flow.
"Power-on wattage" has become the clearest valuation anchor.
The report identifies the most clear-cut valuation metric as "energized power," the scale of operational power infrastructure a company can mobilize. Companies with signed AI leases have valuation multiples exceeding 10 times their energized power, while mining facilities still in the proposal stage have lower multiples.
VanEck also expects the market to place greater emphasis on "tenant quality." Operators serving investment-grade hyperscale data centers enjoy lower financing costs and higher valuations; companies partnering with small- and medium-sized AI startups, however, must bear higher execution risk.
Highlighting promising stocks still tied to Bitcoin
The report lists HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel, and IREN as potential candidates for upward revisions if additional contracts are secured, while noting that MARA, CLSK, and RIOT continue to move more closely in line with Bitcoin's price trends.
Overall, VanEck defines the next phase of the mining industry as “less talk about AI ambitions, more focus on building infrastructure.” The ultimate winners will be those companies that can deliver contracted megawatts as operational data centers, on budget and on schedule.
Where is the Taiwan bonus?
The shift of Bitcoin mining farms to AI is essentially an arbitrage move from selling electricity to selling computing power. Taiwan also has a dense concentration of data centers; Taipower estimates that by 2025, data center electricity consumption in Taiwan will reach 10 billion kWh, accounting for approximately 10% of total power generation. If Taiwan’s future AI computing expansion follows a similar path, it will likewise face the challenge of “easy to sign contracts, hard to get power.”
The difference lies in the fact that U.S. mines have access to existing high-voltage power lines and inexpensive natural gas, while Taiwan must compete for limited新增 electricity capacity. VanEck’s $50 billion funding gap reminds investors that the valuation logic for AI infrastructure is shifting from “how many contracts were signed” to “how much power is actually flowing”—a rule that applies equally to any market.
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