BlockBeats news: On January 3, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, stated in his 2026 outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals as 2026 begins. Bitcoin fell by about 80% in the previous cycle, but actual volatility has since dropped by nearly half, suggesting this downturn could be reduced to around 40%. The market has already priced in about a 35% decline.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle pattern (which often peaks during the U.S. election window) remains valid after the high point in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a sharp rise or crash.
In 2026, global liquidity remains mixed, with expectations of rate cuts providing support. However, U.S. liquidity tightens slightly as AI-driven capital expenditure booms clash with fragile financing markets, leading to wider credit spreads. Leverage levels within the crypto ecosystem have reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity, although still weak, begins to show signs of improvement.
Matthew Sigel said that in this context, it is recommended to establish a disciplined allocation of 1% to 3% in Bitcoin through a dollar-cost averaging strategy, increasing holdings during leveraged liquidations and reducing them when market speculation becomes excessive.