VanEck 2026 Outlook: Bitcoin Drawdown May Shrink to 40%

According to ChainCatcher, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, shared his 2026 outlook, stating that digital assets are showing complex yet positive signals as 2026 begins. Bitcoin declined by about 80% in the previous cycle, but actual volatility has since dropped by nearly half, suggesting this downturn might be limited to around 40%. The market has already absorbed about a 35% decline. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle pattern—typically peaking around the U.S. election cycle—remains valid after the high point in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a dramatic surge or crash. Global liquidity in 2026 will present a mixed picture. Rate-cut expectations offer support, but U.S. liquidity is slightly tighter due to the collision of AI-driven capital spending and fragile financing markets, leading to wider credit spreads. Leverage levels in the crypto ecosystem have reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity remains weak but is beginning to show signs of improvement. Matthew Sigel advised, in this context, to build a disciplined 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation through a dollar-cost averaging strategy, increasing holdings during leveraged liquidations and reducing them when speculative fervor overheats the market.