US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says negotiations on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement are progressing quickly. That’s the good news. The less good news: only two of the three countries named in the agreement seem to be showing up with any urgency.
Greer has been leading bilateral discussions with Mexico since March 2026, working through a joint review process ahead of the agreement’s six-year review milestone on July 1, 2026. On that date, the US formally declined to renew the USMCA in its existing form, signaling that the current deal isn’t cutting it on trade deficits or supply chain security. The existing provisions remain in effect while both sides hash out improvements.
What’s actually on the table
The USMCA originally took effect in 2020, replacing NAFTA. Built into its structure was a mandatory six-year review, a checkpoint where all three parties decide whether to keep the agreement rolling or push for changes.
The key topics under discussion span a wide range: rules of origin for industrial goods, economic security provisions, labor standards, agriculture, environmental protections, and the steel and aluminum industries. Strengthening regional content requirements sits near the top of the priority list, alongside tackling non-tariff barriers like US dairy market access.
A third round of discussions between the US and Mexico is scheduled for the week of July 20, 2026.
Canada’s conspicuous absence
Greer has described Canada as lagging behind in the ongoing trade negotiations, which so far have focused almost exclusively on bilateral discussions with Mexico.
Canada is the largest US trading partner, and any meaningful overhaul of North American trade architecture that doesn’t include Ottawa is, by definition, incomplete. The US and Mexico are setting the terms of the conversation, and Canada risks having to accept a framework it didn’t help design.
Why crypto and financial markets should care
The USMCA’s provisions on digital trade, cross-border data flows, and financial services regulation have direct implications for how fintech and digital asset companies operate across North American borders. The original USMCA included provisions covering prohibitions on customs duties for digital products and protections for source code. Any renegotiation opens the door to updating, strengthening, or potentially restricting these provisions.
As the US pushes for stronger rules of origin and more regional manufacturing, the demand for transparent, verifiable supply chain tracking grows. Blockchain-based supply chain solutions have been positioning themselves for exactly this kind of regulatory environment, where governments want proof of origin and compliance at every step.
The US decision not to renew the USMCA in its current form introduces a layer of uncertainty that markets will need to price in. The agreement’s existing provisions remain in force for now, but until pen hits paper on a revised deal, businesses operating across these borders face an ambiguous regulatory landscape.
Investors watching North American markets should pay particular attention to the third round of US-Mexico talks scheduled for late July. Canada’s eventual entry into substantive negotiations will be another critical inflection point, as a trilateral deal that modernizes digital trade provisions could create one of the world’s most integrated frameworks for cross-border fintech operations.