U.S. Q4 Real GDP Revisions Cut in Half, Core PCE Hits Two-Year High in January

Chainthink

Release Time: 03/13/2026 13:01:36

Summary

On-chain data shows that U.S. real GDP for Q4 2025 was revised down to 0.7% from 1.4%, falling short of the 1.5% forecast. Core PCE increased by 0.4% in January, reaching a two-year high of 3.1% annually. On-chain analysis suggests that ongoing inflationary pressures remain a key concern for markets.

ChainThink reports that on March 13, the U.S. fourth-quarter real GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7%, from an initial estimate of 1.4%, well below the market expectation of 1.5%, indicating a clear slowdown in economic momentum. Following the data release, markets still anticipate the Fed could cut rates as early as September; however, uncertainties remain regarding rate cuts due to persistent inflation and rising oil prices driven by the Middle East situation.

Meanwhile, the U.S. PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in January and increased to 2.8% year-over-year; the core PCE index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month and climbed to 3.1% year-over-year, reaching its highest level in nearly two years. Core PCE has recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase for two consecutive months, indicating that inflation remains persistent.

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