Odaily Planet News: Uniswap founder Hayden Adams posted on the X platform, pointing out that the prediction market Kalshi prices the event of "the U.S. acquiring Greenland" at around 42%, while Polymarket prices it at only 15–23%. Such a significant price discrepancy is not due to differences in user demographics, but rather stems from differences in the specific betting targets themselves. If the difference were only due to user structure, a single trader with access to both platforms could quickly arbitrage and eliminate the price gap. However, the actual situation may be that Polymarket is pricing the probability of the event occurring "by 2026 (currently about 23%)" while Kalshi is pricing the probability of it occurring "during Trump's entire term (currently about 45%)". These are not the same events. In addition, differences in question phrasing, settlement conditions, oracle design, and risk pricing logic can all lead to different pricing.
Uniswap Founder Explains Prediction Market Pricing Discrepancies
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Summary
Uniswap founder Hayden Adams discussed the discrepancy in price predictions between Kalshi and Polymarket for the event "US acquires Greenland." Kalshi shows a 42% probability, while Polymarket ranges from 15% to 23%. Adams explained that the gap arises from differences in event definitions, oracle design, and risk logic—not from user structure. He noted that if the gap were due to user behavior, arbitrage would eventually close it. Bitcoin price prediction models also face similar challenges in achieving market alignment.
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