U.S. stocks rebound 930 points amid rumors of Trump’s Iran peace efforts, with SpaceX IPO looming

Author: Tide Research

On Thursday (June 11, Eastern Time), Wall Street witnessed a textbook V-shaped reversal. Funds that had been fleeing the previous day due to inflation and war collectively turned around within 24 hours.

The Dow Jones surged 929.97 points (+1.86%) to 50,848.75, reclaiming the 50,000 level; the Nasdaq rose 2.54% to 25,809.66; the S&P 500 increased 1.75% to 7,394.30. The Russell 2000 climbed 3.02%, leading all major indices. The VIX volatility index dropped nearly 12%, falling below 20.

What’s interesting is that this strong bullish candle rose despite the hottest inflation data of the year.

The May PPI, released in the morning, surged 6.5% year-over-year, reaching its highest level since November 2022, and rose 1.1% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.7%. Breaking it down further reveals even more alarming figures: commodity prices increased 2.8% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month gain since data collection began in 2009, with about 80% of this rise driven by energy; wholesale gasoline prices jumped 23.4% in a single month. Meanwhile, the first-stage intermediate demand prices, closer to the upstream pipeline, rose 3.2% month-over-month, also setting a new historical record.

On any ordinary trading day, this data would be enough to drop the Nasdaq by 2%. But the market cares about only one thing: whether the war is coming to an end.

In the afternoon, Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes against Iran that evening, stating that Iran's top leadership had approved a draft multilateral consensus agreement, with allies such as Israel having "agreed in principle." Upon the news, WTI crude oil plunged over 4% intraday to around $86, while Brent fell below $89. Oil has been the engine of this inflationary wave; the drop in oil prices effectively dismantled the ammunition for PPI. Trump’s response to inflation was even more direct: "I like it, I like this inflation," and he claimed that once the war ends, oil prices will "fall like a stone."

The logic chain for the capital flow is now complete: draft agreement, oil prices plunging, expectations of inflation peaking, and buying everything. The sectors that fell the hardest the previous day—technology, industrials, and materials—led the rally, while defensive sectors that hit all-time highs on Wednesday—consumer staples, real estate, and energy—were sold off. Within two trading days, the same pool of capital completed a full long-to-short reversal.

The rebound's momentum was concentrated in AI hardware. Micron surged nearly 12%, erasing all of its weekly losses in a single day; SanDisk rose 14%; Intel climbed about 10% after Bank of America upgraded its rating, citing a surge in CPU orders; AMD gained 8%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovered its sentiment in just four trading days since its plunge on June 5.

Software is another world altogether. Oracle plunged 9.56% to close near $184. Even though earnings beat expectations, the market focused on cloud revenue falling short, negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion, and a new $40 billion financing plan. After hours, Adobe delivered the standard “beat and raise” combo: Q2 revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13%, with full-year EPS guidance raised to $24.35–$24.45, and AI-related recurring revenue tripling year-over-year. Yet the stock responded by dropping more than 5% after hours. The trigger was CFO Dan Durn’s announcement that he will leave next Monday to join Marvell—marking the second key executive departure at Adobe in three months, following CEO Narayen’s announcement in March that he would step down. The stock is down 38% year-to-date, and on price alone, a company whose AI revenue has tripled is being priced as a victim of AI.

The same AI narrative: hardware is being snapped up, while software is being abandoned. The market’s unspoken message is harsh: computing power generates visible returns, but software moats are invisible. The direction in which executives are voting with their feet aligns perfectly with stock prices—CFOs are heading to Marvell, a chip company.

Another motive for buying pressure at the close on Thursday lies in Friday: SpaceX priced its shares at $135 per share and is officially listing on Nasdaq tonight under the ticker SPCX.

The scale of this offering is unprecedented: the base fundraising amounted to approximately $750 billion, nearly three times the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco ($256 billion); the implied valuation stood at around $1.75 trillion, making it the seventh-largest company by market cap in the U.S. upon listing—surpassing its sibling company Tesla (~$1.6 trillion). Demand for the offering reportedly exceeded $2.5 trillion, or 3.5 to 4 times the fundraising target. Approximately 30% of shares were allocated to retail investors, three times the industry norm. Musk retained over 82% of voting rights after the offering.

What traders should really mark on their calendars is what follows: according to the rules, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index 15 days after its listing, at which point global index funds tracking QQQ will be forced to mechanically buy shares, with an estimated scale of $22 billion to $27 billion.

The risks are equally clear. Senator Warren wrote to the SEC requesting a delay in the offering, questioning the valuation’s disconnect from financial fundamentals (annual revenue of approximately $20 billion, implying a price-to-sales ratio of about 88x) and the dual-class share structure; Morningstar directly rated it as "significantly overvalued." Another more practical issue: the $75 billion in fundraising will withdraw liquidity from the secondary market within a week; the sharp volatility in the storage and CPU sectors this week was partly driven by capital reallocation to secure allocations in the new offering.

The quality of this rally is questionable.

The 953-point plunge on Wednesday and the 930-point surge on Thursday were both driven by the same social media account. The draft agreement has not yet been signed, and confirmation from Iran still comes from unofficial sources; historically, this conflict has seen multiple instances of "near-agreement" followed by reversals. If a single post can pull the index back from the brink, it only takes one more post to push it over again.

The inflation line remains under alert. The record surge in PPI intermediate demand is water already in the pipeline; even if oil prices peak immediately, the impact will still transmit to CPI over the next two to three months. The pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December remained unchanged after the data release. The European Central Bank has already raised rates to 2.25% on Thursday, and next week, the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all act in turn. The market is betting on the perfect scenario—“war ends, oil prices plunge, rate hikes are canceled”—with all three elements indispensable.

The counterarguments are also on the table: core PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, below expectations, indicating that inflation momentum, excluding energy, is indeed slowing; Intel’s CPU orders and Micron’s demand reflect real orders, not sentiment; if a peace agreement materializes, an oil price of $86 would imply a completely different inflation trajectory than the panic pricing seen this week. Bulls don’t need a perfect script—they just need oil to stop making new highs.

Tonight’s SPCX opening price will be the most honest measure of market risk appetite yet. $75 billion in new shares, a price-to-sales ratio of 88x, and fourfold oversubscription—greed and skepticism will meet on the same candlestick.