U.S. PCE data to be released tonight, may dampen Fed rate cut outlook

Chainthink

Release Time: 03/13/2026 12:20:58

Summary

On-chain data shows the U.S. will release January PCE data at 20:30 Beijing time on March 13. Market forecasts suggest core PCE could reach 3.1%, the largest increase since April 2024. Analysts note that PCE’s emphasis on items such as software and jewelry may result in higher inflation readings compared to CPI. A growing divergence between the two metrics could indicate stronger inflationary pressures. Rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are adding upward pressure on energy and food costs, complicating the Fed’s outlook on rate cuts.

ChainThink reports that on March 13, at 20:30 Beijing time, Friday, the U.S. will release January PCE data. Markets expect PCE to rise 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month; core PCE may increase to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest gain since April 2024.

Analysis indicates that although recent CPI data shows easing inflationary pressures, the higher weight of goods in PCE may cause core PCE to rise due to increasing prices of certain goods such as software and jewelry. If core PCE rises significantly more than CPI year-over-year, the gap between the two could reach its largest level in decades.

Since the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on the PCE index when formulating policy, a resurgence in inflation could weaken expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices and may further increase costs for energy, transportation, and food, introducing new upside risks to future inflation trends.

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