U.S. PCE data expected to rise, adding uncertainty to the Fed’s rate cut outlook

KuCoinFlash

Release Time: 03/13/2026 12:16:26

Summary

U.S. PCE data is set to rise, with altcoins to watch closely as the Fed’s rate cut outlook faces new uncertainty. The January PCE report, due on March 13, is expected to show a 2.9% annual increase and a 0.3% monthly rise, with core PCE possibly reaching 3.1%, the highest since April 2024. On-chain data suggests market unease as core PCE outpaces CPI, which may dampen expectations for rate cuts. Rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict add inflationary risks, impacting energy, transportation, and food costs.

BlockBeats news: On March 13, at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. will release the January PCE data. The market expects PCE to rise 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month; core PCE may increase to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest gain since April 2024.

Analysis indicates that although recent CPI data shows easing inflationary pressures, the higher weight of goods in PCE may cause core PCE to rise due to increasing prices of certain goods such as software and jewelry. If core PCE rises significantly more than CPI year-over-year, the gap between the two could reach its largest level in decades.

Since the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on the PCE index when setting policy, a resurgence in inflation could weaken expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices and may further increase costs for energy, transportation, and food, introducing new upside risks to future inflation trends.

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