BlockBeats news: On June 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payroll data at 20:30 tonight. The market generally expects that the U.S. added approximately 85,000 non-farm jobs in May, significantly lower than the average of about 150,000 over the previous two months; the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.
Multiple institutions have adopted a more conservative outlook for this non-farm payroll data. Goldman Sachs forecasts only 60,000 new jobs in May, citing weakening high-frequency employment indicators it tracks; EY expects 50,000 new jobs and anticipates slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate; Vanguard’s chief economist, Adam Schickling, forecasts just 20,000 new jobs, suggesting that unusually warm and dry weather earlier in the year inflated job data from January to April—a factor that may partially reverse in May.
From a monetary policy perspective, if the non-farm payrolls data largely aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady at its June 16–17 meeting. Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY, noted that a stable labor market combined with persistently high inflation could increase the likelihood of the Fed issuing a more hawkish dual-policy statement at its next meeting, with policymakers potentially emphasizing that rate hikes remain an available tool if inflation proves more persistent.