In April 2026, the bell outside Independence Hall in Philadelphia still chimes on time. But not far away, in Wall Street and Silicon Valley, a multi-hundred-million-dollar silent gamble has reached its most intense moment.
This year marks the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. However, rather than a victor’s anthem, he faces the most brutal “midterm curse” in American politics. The Republican Party’s majority in the House has shrunk to a mere five seats, and on prediction markets like Kalshi, the probability of Democrats regaining control of the House has quietly risen to 86%.
This is not just a race for seats—it’s a race against time to see if cryptocurrency legalization can break free before summer 2026.
Voters' "corrective instinct"
Historically, U.S. politics has been governed by a near-physical law of “gravity”: voters consistently “correct” the president’s power in midterm elections by casting opposition votes after the enthusiasm of the previous two years.
Of the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the president’s party lost seats in 18 of them, resulting in a failure rate of 90%. On average, the ruling party loses 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats.
The only three exceptions in history were all forcibly altered by extreme external events:
Roosevelt in 1934: Desperately relying on the rebound from the depths of the Great Depression.
In 1998, Clinton: Backlash from public opinion due to the Republican-led aggressive impeachment.
In 2002, Bush: An unprecedented surge of patriotic unity following the 9/11 attacks.
In 2026, Trump will not have these "cheats" at his disposal. Instead, he finds himself trapped in a web of多重 pressures: the smoke from Iran’s tensions has yet to clear, and global supply chains are reeling under the weight of tariff threats. Data shows that tariff policies have caused American households to spend an additional $233 per month on average; the lingering effects of the Fed’s rate hikes have not subsided; oil prices hover around $120—representing the largest increase in tax burden relative to GDP since 1993.
When Trump’s economic approval rating dropped to 31%, a career low, the so-called midterm election anxiety ceased to be an emotional concern and became cold, hard common sense.
The "siege" of a divided government and the "surprise attack" of executive orders
If the Democrats regain control of the House, Washington will return to a divided government. For Wall Street, this may be good news—divided government means policies are unlikely to shift dramatically, and markets thrive on predictable mediocrity. But for the cryptocurrency industry, which seeks structural regulatory reform, this amounts to hitting a brick wall.
However, Trump has never been one to sit idly by. As the legislative door slowly closes, he is likely to retreat to his most familiar domain: rule by executive order.
We can anticipate that once losing legislative initiative, Trump’s strategy will quickly shift from full-scale offense to behind-the-lines raids. This transformation will primarily manifest in three aspects:
Human resources is policy.
Even if they lose the House, as long as the Republicans retain control of the Senate—where the 2026 map is relatively favorable to them and Democrats have more seats to defend—Trump will hold the “sword of authority” over confirmation appointments.
The change in SEC chairmanship, the CFTC’s complete policy shift, the Treasury’s administrative guidance on stablecoins, and the OCC’s lowered barriers for banks to custody digital assets—all of these moves require no approval from the House of Representatives. As long as the person in that chair is “one of us,” the regulatory gates can swing 180 degrees without a single law being amended.
Backdoor in the budget reconciliation process
Within the gaps of a divided government, there exists a special mechanism called the reconciliation process. As long as the Republican Party retains control of the Senate and holds at least one chamber, legislation related to budget and taxation can bypass the 60-vote threshold. This means that provisions involving “the purse,” such as tax rules for staking income and digital asset tax reporting, still have a chance to pass with a simple majority.
The Shield of Veto Power
If the Democratic House attempts to pass harsh anti-crypto legislation, Trump’s veto power will become the industry’s last line of defense. While this legislative stalemate won’t drive progress, it can at least preserve current interests and prevent a return to the dark ages before 2022.
Summer 2026: Cryptocurrency's "D-Day"
While administrative measures can provide temporary relief, the industry truly seeks "legal certainty." Currently, two key bills—the CLARITY Act (Market Structure Act) and the Stablecoin Act—are at a critical crossroads.
In January, a 278-page Senate draft stalled over issues of stablecoin yield distribution and the definition of DeFi. The crypto industry has invested $288 million primarily to buy time—they must force the bill through before summer 2026, when the midterm elections intensify and bipartisan cooperation completely breaks down.
Why summer 2026?
Once this window closes, if the Democrats regain the House as expected, they will most likely choose to rewrite the provisions or even shelve these bills until after the 2028 election. For major crypto companies, a two-year delay means billions of dollars in compliance costs and missed global opportunities.
On social media, many crypto natives have begun to express disappointment in Trump. The slow progress of legislation and the lack of dramatic price surges, despite political promises, have fueled this “underwhelming” sentiment, rooted in overoptimism about political efficiency.
But we must face a fact: although Trump cannot defy gravity, he has changed the gravitational constant.
In 2022, the industry discussed whether we would be completely shut down; in 2026, we discuss whether the legislative window will be delayed due to the midterm elections.
The normalization of ETFs:已成为主流金融资产的一部分。
Relaxation of regulatory stance: From discussions on repealing SAB 121 to breakthroughs in compliant custody.
Structural shift in parliamentary power: Even with fewer seats in 2026, the base of support for cryptocurrency in Congress is no longer the marginal fringe it once was.
Trump is not the savior of cryptocurrency; he is a shrewd businessman president. He has opened up a world-class landscape for the industry, but the industry cannot rely on him to forever defy the cyclical nature of American politics.
Seek certainty at the end of the cycle
For the crypto industry, prosperity built on political donations and the promises of a single leader is ultimately fragile. When oil prices, grocery bills, and the smoke of war in Iran dominate voters’ minds, cryptocurrency must prove it is more than just a tool for financial speculation—it must become an indispensable part of America’s future financial infrastructure.
If, in the summer of 2026, the bill ultimately stalls at the threshold of the House, the crypto industry will have to accept a longer, more winding “executive order era.” This may bring short-term pain, but viewed against the long arc of history, it is merely a routine exertion of gravity.
The mid-term storm will eventually pass, but the rules that survive it will shape the industry’s foundation for the next decade.