Over the weekend, market sentiment shifted almost entirely toward risk-on appetite.
Major indices rose broadly, with technology and precious metals surging significantly; the energy sector suffered heavy losses (CL −1.79%, Brent −1.23%, NATGAS −0.7%), serving as the most direct confirmation of the "war is over" narrative.
Crude Oil & U.S. Stock Indices
At 07:31 on June 14, Fars News Agency, citing sources close to the negotiating team, reported that Iran has not yet made a final decision on the proposed memorandum of understanding (MOU). Oil prices subsequently rose to $82.6.
On the same day at 19:51, YNET further reported: Trump may be willing to immediately lift the maritime blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, rather than phasing it out gradually as currently agreed.
At 21:30, the decisive moment arrived. Trump posted on Truth Terminal: “The agreement with Iran has been completed,” “Authorization granted to immediately lift the U.S. maritime blockade,” and “Authorization granted for the Strait of Hormuz to be toll-free.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister simultaneously stated that, effective that evening, multiple fronts (including Lebanon) would immediately and permanently cease military operations.
Notably, the price of crude oil has now fallen to TradeXYZ's weekend price boundary, as the market has already priced in this news.
The S&P 500 index subsequently reached $7,530.
Before the formal signing of the peace agreement (on the 19th), the market is likely to experience a period of waiting.
Precious metals
At the exact moment the protocol agreement was announced at 21:30, gold surged directly from approximately 4,221 to a high of 4,337, while silver rose from around 67.85 to a high of 70.83, subsequently stabilizing at these elevated levels.
Individual stocks / ETFs
Several stocks, including NBIS, RKLB, and LITE, performed strongly over the weekend.
NBIS: Added to the Nasdaq Index on June 12; Compass Point raises price target citing strong growth in AI cloud business—Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, up 683.9% year-over-year.
RKLB: Also added to the Nasdaq index on June 12, and supported by spillover sentiment from SpaceX's valuation.
LITE: JPMorgan set a $1,130 price target in its report on June 11.
SPCX also performed strongly, rising 0.56% on TradeXYZ within minutes after Musk replied to a tweet over the weekend: “I think SpaceX could achieve around $1 trillion in revenue by 2030.”
Overall, the market impact of the three-month war is beginning to fade, and the agreement is not set to be formally signed until June 19, with Israel’s actions remaining the biggest wildcard during this period.
This Wednesday, Warsh’s debut at the Federal Reserve and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan will also significantly impact the market.